457
FXUS66 KHNX 140603
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1103 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COOLING POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2. WINDS BECOME GUSTY AND FROM THE EAST OVER THE SIERRA CREST
AND EASTERN KERN COUNTY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
3. ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW,
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
4. A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE WEST AND INTRODUCES UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
WHILE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW DAYS WERE A WELCOME
SIGHT, THEY WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT THESE CONDITIONS PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER, A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BREAK FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY
THURSDAY, SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE, AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
EXTENDING INTO NEVADA, OREGON, AND IDAHO. THIS PATTERN IS KNOWN
AS A "REX BLOCK", WHERE THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW SPLITS TO
THE NORTH AROUND THE HIGH AND TO THE SOUTH AROUND THE LOW,
RESULTING IN MOSTLY STAGNANT CONDITIONS LOCATED IN THE BLOCK.
BECAUSE OF THIS NEW PATTERN, TEMEPRATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, NEARING TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASON
AVERAGES AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, THERE
IS A 60 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO EXCEED
90 DEGREES FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
MINOR HEATRISK WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE HEATRISK. THE LACK OF
GREATER HEATRISK LEVELS IS THANKS TO COOLER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS HEAT WAVE EARLIER THIS
MONTH.
WHILE THE BLOCKING PATTERN DIRECTS THE LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FLOW AROUND THE LOCAL AREA, A SMALLER-SCALE INFLUENCE WILL
DEVELOP FROM THIS PATTERN IN THE SHAPE OF INCREASED WINDS
BETWEEN THE CONFLICTING PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE
DIRECTION OF THE INCOMING WINDS WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR IN
ADDITION TO THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE RATHER SUMMER-LIKE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
MINIMUMS LARGELY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND LOW RESULTS IN MODERATE PROBABILITIES
(40-50%) FOR MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 35 MPH OVER THE
SIERRA CREST AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE ALSO HIGH
PROBABILITIES (70-80%) FOR MAXIMUM GUSTS TO EXCEED 45 MPH IN THE
MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES.
INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS AGREEMENT IN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AFTER
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC, WITH POTENTIAL TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. AS OF NOW, THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 0.01")
OVER 24 HOURS ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY, AND GREATER PROBABILITIES WITH INCREASING ALTITUDE.
LOWERED SNOW LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLDER SYSTEM HAS
MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR THE PEAKS TO RECEIVE A TRACE OR MORE
OF SNOWFALL.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
STRONGER WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF KERN COUNTY PAIRED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES APPROACHING 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED
RISK FOR FIRE DANGER. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES REACHING 40 PERCENT
AT BEST WILL EXTEND THE THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
DUE TO THIS, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TIME
PERIOD, FOCUSED ON THE AREAS FROM FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB TO THE AREAS BETWEEN LAKE ISABELLA AND TEHACHAPI.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ596-597.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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