944
FXUS66 KHNX 141734
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1034 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMING PATTERN COMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COOLDOWN NEXT
WEEK.
2. WINDS BECOME GUSTY AND FROM THE EAST OVER THE SIERRA CREST AND
EASTERN KERN COUNTY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
3. WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH REMAINS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS FROM THURSDAY AM
THROUGH FRIDAY PM.
4. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT ZONES
FROM THURSDAY AM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTING UP TO
55MPH.
5. A PATTERN CHANGE MAY BE UPON US EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE WEST AND INTRODUCES UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
TIME FOR YOUR FAVORITE PART OF THE DAY, READING THE AREA FORECAST
DISCUSSION (WITH SOME SARCASM)! THE SHIVERING TEMPERATURES THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN A RELIEVING WELCOME, BUT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT CAUSED THEM IS PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, ASIDE
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OFF DOWN INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SUCKS, BECAUSE WE DESERVE THE LOWER TEMPERATURES MORE THAN THEM,
WOULDN'T YOU AGREE? MOTHER NATURE MUST NOT THINK SO, AS THERETH
EXISTETH SOME HEAT ON THE HORIZON. THIS HEAT WILL BE CAUSED BY A
"TAG TEAM" FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHWEST STATES, ALONG WITH A MONO WIND- LIKE
EVENT BRINGING HOT DRY AIR DRY ADIABATICALLY DOWNSLOPE ALONG THE
SIERRAS AND KERN MOUNTAINS. THIS ATMOSPHERIC SETUP IS CALLED A "REX
BLOCK", WHERE THE WESTERLY WIND MOVES NORTH AROUND THE HIGH AND TO
THE SOUTH AROUND THE LOW, RESULTING IN A "BACKWARDS S" SHAPED
PATTERN WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE BLOCK MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THE TERM REX
BLOCK SOUNDS COOL, ITS LIKE A DINOSAUR PLAYING WITH LEGOS! AS A
RESULT OF THIS, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, NEARING TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASON AVERAGES AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND. WHILE THIS DOESN'T APPROACH THE BOILING POINT LIKE LAST
TIME, YOU MAY STILL SWEAT A BIT THIS WEEKEND. CURRENT PROBABILITIES
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CURRENTLY SIT AT 55-70%, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
HEATRISK. A LACK OF GREATER HEATRISK LEVELS IS DUE TO COOLER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS HEAT WAVE
EARLIER THIS MONTH. ANYTHING ABOVE MINOR WOULD BE VERY MEAN OF
MOTHER NATURE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE RATHER SUMMER-LIKE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH MINIMUMS LARGELY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE REX BLOCK
RESULTS IN MODERATE PROBABILITIES (MORE THAN 40%) FOR MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS TO EXCEED 35 MPH OVER THE SIERRA CREST AND KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. THERETH ALSO EXISTETH MODERATE PROBABILITIES
(GREATER THAN 50%) FOR MAXIMUM GUSTS TO EXCEED 55 MPH IN THE
MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES. THERE ARE EVEN LOCALIZED PROBABILITIES IN
THE SOUTHERN MOJAVE DESERT TO EXCEED 60MPH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
SUCH, WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT
ACTIVE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DA WINDS BE
GUSTIN, SO BE CAREFUL!!
INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS AGREEMENT IN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AFTER DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC, WITH POTENTIAL TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. AS OF NOW, THERE IS A 25 TO 35 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 0.01") OVER 12 HOUR PERIODS
STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO LATE WEDNESDAY IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, AND GREATER PROBABILITIES WITH INCREASING
ALTITUDE. BECAUSE THIS TIME PERIOD IS CURRENTLY DAYS 6 AND 7 IN
ANALYSIS, CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS STORM IS LOW TO
MODERATE AT BEST. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND, IT WOULD BE NICE
TO SEE THIS SCENARIO VERIFY. ANOTHER NOTE, LOWERED SNOW LEVELS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLDER SYSTEM HAS MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR
THE PEAKS TO RECEIVE A TRACE OR MORE OF SNOWFALL. ALTHOUGH FROSTY
THE SNOWMAN DID NOT MAKE AN EARLY OCTOBER APPEARANCE FROM THE LAST
DISTURBANCE, THERE ARE CHANCES OF HIM COMING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
STRONGER WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF KERN COUNTY PAIRED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES APPROACHING 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED
RISK FOR FIRE DANGER. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES REACHING 40 PERCENT
AT BEST WILL EXTEND THE THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
DUE TO THIS, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TIME
PERIOD, FOCUSED ON THE AREAS FROM FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB TO THE AREAS BETWEEN LAKE ISABELLA AND TEHACHAPI.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
CAZ337>339.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
CAZ592>597.
PUBLIC...MOORE
AVIATION....BB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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