165
FXUS66 KHNX 151136
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
436 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 4000 FEET
DUE TO HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
2. A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
COOLDOWN NEXT WEEK.
3. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT ZONES
FROM THURSDAY AM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTING UP TO
55MPH.
4. A PATTERN CHANGE MAY BE UPON US EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE WEST AND INTRODUCES UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON REFLECTED
THE PROJECTED WARMING TREND FOR THIS WEEK, RISING FOUR TO FIVE
DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN SHIFT WILL
GRADUALLY APPEAR NOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN WHICH A
LOCALIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CUT OFF FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. WHILE THIS CUTOFF LOW SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, OREGON AND IDAHO. THE LARGE-SCALE
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPLIT: TRACKING TO THE NORTH
AROUND THE HIGH AND TO THE SOUTH AROUND THE LOW. STAGNANT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER CALIFORNIA INITIALLY, BUT THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO CONFLICTING
SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WARM, DRY AIR FROM NEVADA WILL RISE
OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA NEVADA BEFORE DESCENDING INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL VALLEY, FURTHER RAISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, THERE IS AN 80
TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO EXCEED 85
DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 50 TO 70
PERCENT PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THESE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH TEN DEGREES ABOVE
SEASON AVERAGES.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE UPCOMING PATTERN,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT. FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA CRESTS, THERE IS A 50 TO 60
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR MAXIMUM GUSTS TO EXCEED 35 MPH BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
LEADING TO SIMILAR PROBABILITIES ON BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL NOT ONLY BE STRONGER FOR KERN COUNTY, BUT ALSO LAST
FURTHER INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A 70 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
MAXIMUM GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 MPH IN THE LAKE ISABELLA AREA ON
FRIDAY, WITH SIMILAR PROBABILITIES FOR 50 MPH GUSTS IN THE
MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES, INCLUDING THE TOWN OF MOJAVE, WALKER PASS,
AND CALIFORNIA ROUTES 14, 58, AND 178. DUE TO THESE STRONGER
WINDS, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DESERT PORTION OF
KERN COUNTY VALID FROM 6 AM THURSDAY THROUGH 10 PM FRIDAY.
THIS HOT, DRY PATTERN WILL LOSE ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE WEAKENING BLOCK WILL ALLOW A
MORE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN US
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SINCE APRIL. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM EXPRESSES A 40 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY
FOR AT LEAST MEASUREABLE RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 0.01") IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NEXT WEDNESDAY, AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR A
WETTING RAINFALL (GREATER THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH).
PROBABILITIES INCREASE WITH ELEVATION, WITH MODERATE
PROBABILITIES (50 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR AT LEAST A TRACE OF
SNOWFALL ABOVE 8000 FEET.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ337>339.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ592>597.
PUBLIC...MCCOY
AVIATION....EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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