858
FXUS66 KHNX 151735
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1035 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 4000 FEET
DUE TO HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
2. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT ZONES
FROM THURSDAY AM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTING UP TO
55MPH.
3. A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
COOLDOWN NEXT WEEK.
4. A PATTERN CHANGE MAY BE UPON US EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE WEST AND INTRODUCES UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
WELCOME TO THIS MORNING'S FORECAST DISCUSSION, OUR READER'S
FAVORITE TIME OF THE DAY!
TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE TROUBLESOME TIMES FOR OUR MOUNTAIN AND
DESERT COMMUNITIES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (WITH 500 MILLIBAR
HEIGHTS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATE RECORD FOR TODAY) HAS
SET UP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TRI-POINT OF AZ, CA, AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND SLIDE SOUTHWEST-WARD OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. CUTTING TO THE CHASE, THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS FROM THE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION'S MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERT. MORE INFORMATION ON WIND PRODUCTS AND FIRE DANGER WILL
PRESENTED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION.
UNFORTUNATELY, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALSO COMES WARMER
TEMPERATURES. ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT
WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED, GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY COOLING TO THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S WILL LIMIT
ANY POTENTIAL HEAT ILLNESS RISK JUST TO THOSE VERY SENSITIVE TO
HEAT. BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN, MOVE EASTWARD, AND QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO
PLEASANT, FALL- LIKE TEMPERATURES.
ALONG WITH QUICKLY TRANSITIONING BACK TO MORE TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER, FIGURATIVE AND LITERAL STORM CLOUDS RETURN TO
CALIFORNIA SOME TIME NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE EXPECTED, 50/50
SCENARIO ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING'S RUN OF THE NATIONAL BLEND
OF MODELS (NBM) PLACES LIGHT RAIN OF A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH IN
THE SIERRA NEVADA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WETTER, MORE
AGGRESSIVE SCENARIOS WITH A LESS THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
OCCURING ALSO SHOW LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN A TRACE TO QUARTER INCH
FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. BUT AS THIS EVENT IS 5-7 DAYS AHEAD,
SPECIFICS ARE YET TO COME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE
SIERRA NEVADA, TEHACHAPI, AND SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4,000
FEET DUE TO STRONG WINDS FROM THE EAST AND LOW HUMIDITY.
CONFIDENCE FOR EASTERLY GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH IS HIGHEST
(70-90 PERCENT CHANCE) TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH
ISOLATED AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTS THIS FAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WARNED PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY AND FRIDAY
EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT IN THE WARNED AREAS, WITH DRYER
AREAS AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ337>339.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ592>597.
PUBLIC...ND
AVIATION....MOORE
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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