422
FXUS66 KHNX 161820
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1120 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA LIKELY ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
2. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR HIGH WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
3. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
4. A PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS LIKELY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING QUICKLY TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND
A CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE AREA (LOW CONFIDENCE).
DISCUSSION
FALL LIKE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO
AFTER A VERY HOT START TO THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. TEMPERATURES
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA. THE
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90 DEGREES TODAY IS AROUND
25-40% ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY TODAY, WITH HIGHER
LOCALIZED PROBABILITIES IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY (75-90%).
TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE NEAR FUTURE WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90 DEGREES AT AROUND 50-65%
THROUGH MOST OF THE VALLEY, WITH THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AT AROUND
80-95%. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL BY SUNDAY WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ONLY AT AROUND 35-50%.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH AN
"OMEGA BLOCK" PATTERN, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH, INFLUENCING OUR AREA. THIS PATTERN HAS
LED TO HIGHER LOCALIZED EASTERLY WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND DESERT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4000 FEET THROUGH
10 PM TONIGHT. THERE ARE LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THAT HAVE HAD OBSERVED WIND GUSTS AROUND 45-60 MPH, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF TEHACHAPI AND SOUTH OF THE SEQUOIA NATIONAL FOREST. IN
ADDITION, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (RHS) REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE SAME AREA MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY (BELOW 25%). A WIND ADVISORY
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY. THE PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH WILL BE
AROUND 65-80% THROUGH MUCH OF THE DESERT TODAY BEFORE WINDS
GUSTS BEGIN TO ALLEVIATE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST,
LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN WIND GUSTS BY THIS
WEEKEND. THEREFORE, THE RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY WILL
EXPIRE TONIGHT.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE REACHED A CONSENSUS THAT
THERE WILL BE A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO OUR AREA OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL THEREFORE COOL SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES WILL BE AT AROUND 50-65% IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND
80-95% IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. BY
TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ONLY ABOUT A
30-45% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 75 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION, WIND GUSTS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
AND MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES WILL INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PROBABILITY
OF WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH WILL BE AT AROUND 50-65% ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO OUR AREA COULD LEAD TO PRECIPITATION BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER, THE EXACT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE CURRENTLY GIVEN THAT
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. IF RAINFALL DOES IMPACT
THE AREA, THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL THAT DOES FALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION,
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST SNOWFALL WILL BE LIKELY AROUND THE SAME
TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN SNOWFALL TOTALS
ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE EXACT DETAILS WITH REGARDS TO
SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN NEBULOUS.
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
CPC HAS US IN A 33-50% CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THE CPC HAS
ABOUT A 50-70% CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT 6-10 DAYS, AND ABOUT AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
8-14 DAYS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH BAKERSFIELD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST, AND GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR AREAS
ABOVE 4,000 FEET. EASTERLY WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH WERE
RECENTLY OBSERVED NORTH OF TEHACHAPI AND SOUTH OF THE SEQUOIA
NATIONAL FOREST. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25% REMAIN
IN PLACE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 15-25% TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY TONIGHT REDUCING THE THREAT FOR FIRE
SPREAD.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ337>339.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ592>597.
PUBLIC...MC
AVIATION....MOORE
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page