358
FXUS66 KHNX 170515
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1015 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
2. A PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS LIKELY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING QUICKLY TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE AREA
(LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE).
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
SATURDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, INCLUDING
HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. TODAY'S HIGHS
REACHED 90 DEGREES IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. CHANCES FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 90 DEGREES OR WARMER ON SATURDAY ARE AT
55 TO 65 PERCENT FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY
DECREASED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT, WHILE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN
IMPROVING IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS EVENING. THUS, THE RED FLAG
WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM PDT
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH, SOME INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL FURTHER DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS RELAX AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES INLAND TOWARDS THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
FOR SUNDAY, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, BUT WITH A
MINOR DECREASE. CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90
DEGREES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER
THAN ON SATURDAY, OR AT 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY TO AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MORE NOTICEABLE
COOLING BY MONDAY. EVEN MORE COOLING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ENTER THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WE ARE LOOKING AT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH EVEN BETTER CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE A MUCH COOLER
PATTERN, AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE LOWER 70S IN THE
VALLEY FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS OF THIS WRITING,
CHANCES OF A 70 DEGREE READING OR LOWER ARE AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT
FOR WEDNESDAY UNTIL NEXT FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.10
INCH ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE AT 35 TO 45 PERCENT FOR THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND OF 0.50 INCH OR GREATER FOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA ARE AT A SIMILAR PERCENTAGE. AS FOR THE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION, SNOW LEVELS ARE AT 8,000 FEET ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS..
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ592>597.
BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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