013
FXUS66 KHNX 181804
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1104 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2026
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE WILL PERIODS OF CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. KBFL WILL SEE
WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST FROM 03-06Z.
KEY MESSAGES...
1. WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
2. MODERATE FIRE RISK WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 20%
IN THE FOOTHILLS, SIERRA NEVADA AND DESERT TODAY.
3. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
4. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF RAIN REGIONWIDE AND HIGH SIERRA SNOW EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY.
5. MARGINAL RISK (5% PROBABILITY) OF FLASH FLOODING FOR MUCH OF
KERN COUNTY AND THE MOUNTAINS OF TULARE COUNTY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 400 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2026/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES
FOR HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY ARE
RELATIVELY LOW (10-20 PERCENT, EXCEPT 40-50 PERCENT TOWARDS THE
SOUTH END AND ALONG THE ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN). DRY CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL, BUT HUMIDITY WILL IMPROVE BEGINNING MONDAY
AS NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE.
BESIDES FURTHER COOLING ON TUESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES
HAVE RISEN TO 70-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. AMOUNTS OF 0.50 INCH OR GREATER
ARE CURRENTLY AT A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA.
THERE IS ALSO A 70-80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE DESERT AND SIERRA
FOOTHILLS FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH AND A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
AT LEAST A HALF INCH. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HEAVIER AMOUNTS DUE TO SLOW
MOVING STORMS OVER THE DESERT AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION; CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. AROUND
3-6 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 8,000 FEET IN THE SIERRA NEVADA HAS A
MODERATE CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE (INCLUDING A 40-50 PERCENT FOR AT
LEAST 4 INCHES) FROM YOSEMITE TO SEQUOIA NP. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES ON FROM WEDNESDAY UNTIL FRIDAY (45 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE
TO REACH 70 DEGREES OR LOWER). ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
OCCURS LATER NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE CPC (CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER) MENTIONS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (NEAR 40 PERCENT
CHANCE) AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION (40-60 PERCENT) FOR
THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MATTAROCHIA
AVIATION....MATTAROCHIA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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