294
FXUS66 KHNX 182113
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
213 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2026
DISCUSSION
COOLING BEGINS IN EARNEST AS A DEVELOPING, STRENGTHENING STORM
MONDAY, WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND, IMBUES AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK. ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE RAINFALL HAS
BECOME CLEARER, LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY, THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH THE MOST EXTREME AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
HAVE CALMED. NONETHELESS, LOCAL EFFECTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY AND
WIND DIRECTION/STRENGTH WILL HAVE A LOT TO DO WITH WHERE THE
AXIS OF HEAVY/TRAINING RAINFALL SETS UP. THIS IS A DETAIL
TYPICALLY NOT RESOLVED WELL BY THE COARSER ENSEMBLE SUITE.
ANOTHER IMPORTANT DETAIL IS THE REMANANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
TRUDY.
THUS, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
CONTINUED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WITHIN 25 MILES
OF A POINT (5% PROBABILITY) ACROSS MUCH OF KERN COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN TULARE COUNTY, STARTING WEDNESDAY AT 5A UNTIL
THURSDAY AT 5A. THE BOREL BURN SCAR AND THE VERY FLOOD PRONE
AREAS OF EASTERN KERN, ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAYS 58 AND 14
SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST. PROBABILITIES FOR A HALF INCH OF
RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD ARE FAR MORE BULLISH THAN A TYPICAL 4
DAY FORECAST, SITTING AT 50-60%. THERE IS ALSO A 10%
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE.
PROBABILITIES HAVE RISEN TO 70-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A 40-50% PROBABILITY
REMAINS (FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES) FROM YOSEMITE TO SEQUOIA NP.
THIS AMOUNT OF SNOW ON TIOGA ROAD/PASS IN YOSEMITE NP WILL CAUSE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FOR THOSE CROSSING THE SIERRA NEVADA.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OCCURS LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE CPC (CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER)
MENTIONS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (NEAR 40 PERCENT CHANCE) AND
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION (40-60 PERCENT) FOR THE 6-10 DAY
AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE WILL PERIODS OF CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. KBFL WILL SEE
WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST FROM 03-06Z MONDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MATTAROCHIA
AVIATION....MATTAROCHIA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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