499
FXUS66 KHNX 191828
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1128 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES...
1. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO CLOSE TO AVERAGE TODAY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
2. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY AFTER
TODAY AND PRECIPITATION MID-WEEK.
3. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE FIRST WETTING RAINFALL IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY THIS FALL WITH A 55-75% CHANCE OF AT LEAST A
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS BY AROUND MID-DAY THURSDAY.
4. SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ABOVE 8000 FEET IN ELEVATION WITH A 50-75%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW (PROBABILITES INCREASE
FURTHER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
DISCUSSION
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. A CLOSED LOW AND A DEEP
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
THIS WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION. TODAY HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH A COOLDOWN AFTER THE WARM WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. THE
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 85 DEGREES TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS LOW (10-25%), WHILE THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY HAS A 50-70% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 85
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TODAY, AND
BY WEDNESDAY THE PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 75
DEGREES IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10-25%. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY BY LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA INCLUDING THE VALLEY. BY FRIDAY THE CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW 50 DEGREES IS AROUND 55-70% ACROSS MOST OF
THE VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO THE SIGNFICANT COOLDOWN IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH, A CLOSED LOW WILL BRING IN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. PRECIPITATION COULD
BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING OR NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BEFORE LIKELY BEGINNING IN THE VALLEY SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW, PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO TAPER OFF SOMETIME OVERNIGHT THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS, THERE IS A 65-80%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL, AND A 55-75%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY AND THE MOJAVE DESERT. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (WPC) INDICATES A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE FLODDING
(AT LEAST 5% CHANCE) IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND THE MOJAVE DESERT WITHIN WESTERN KERN COUNTY. MANY
LOCALIZED AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOJAVE DESERT AND TEHACHAPI
PASS ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLODDING, AND THEREFORE THE
FORECASTED RAINFALL WITHIN THAT REGION IS OF PARTICULAR
IMPORTANCE. IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET SNOWFALL REMAINS
LIKELY WITHIN A SIMILAR TIME PERIOD WITH A 50-75% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
EVEN HIGHER IN THE HIGHEST MOUNTIANS SLOPES, WITH A 55-70%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THOSE AREAS.
IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL, THERE IS THE POSSIBILTY
OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA SLOPES AND WITHIN THE
MOJAVE DESERT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 25
MPH WILL BE AROUND 50-75% FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN LOCALIZED AREAS. THERE IS THEREFORE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL,
MAKING TRAVEL MORE DIFFIUCLT.
LOOKING AT THE LONG RANGE CONDITIONS, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE THAT A TROUGHING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE IS
ALSO ANOTHER CHANCE OF A VERY LIGHT RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS VERY LOW AS OF NOW GIVEN
THAT THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS
VERY FAR OUT. ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC),
WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT 6-10 AND 8-14 DAYS. IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK THERE
IS A 33-40% CHANCE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND THE SAME
PERCENTAGE CHANCE FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT KBFL AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 10 MPH.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MC
AVIATION....MOORE
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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