695
FXUS66 KHNX 200529
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1029 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY AFTER
TODAY AND PRECIPITATION MID-WEEK.
2. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE FIRST WETTING RAINFALL IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY THIS FALL WITH A 75-85% CHANCE OF AT LEAST A
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS BY AROUND MID-DAY THURSDAY.
3. SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ABOVE 8,000 FEET IN ELEVATION WITH A
60-70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW (PROBABILITIES
INCREASE FURTHER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
DISCUSSION
TODAY'S HIGHS WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS, INCLUDING IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND MOJAVE DESERT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KERN COUNTY. WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WERE AROUND FIVE DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY'S, HIGHS REMAINED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY, MAINLY FROM
FRESNO SOUTHWARD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND ON TUESDAY AND EVEN MORE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
REACH BELOW AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN LATE TUESDAY
IN THE SIERRA NEVADA AND SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, WE'RE SEEING A HIGH
PROBABILITY (75-85% CHANCE) OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH FOR THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A 70-80
PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.50 INCH OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND FOOTHILLS FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FOR SNOWFALL, AT LEAST A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS SHOWN FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SIERRA NEVADA, MAINLY ABOVE 8,000 FEET. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 10,000 FEET; THE LATEST WINTER STORM
SEVERITY INDEX FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS MINOR TO
MODERATE IMPACTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA CREST DUE TO SNOW
LOADING.
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD, COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL (HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS), ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS NO
LONGER FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NONETHELESS, THE LATEST
OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE ODDS TILTED TOWARDS ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OUT TO 8-14
DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOW A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE AVERAGE (40-50%
CHANCE) FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BUT REVERT TO BELOW AVERAGE
(SIMILAR PROBABILITY) ON THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
BSO/ND
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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