894
FXUS64 KHUN 300636
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1236 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 836 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER KS/OK SHIFTS EASTWARD
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TX IS PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL MS
MOVING EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL AL. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT IT IS GOING TO TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE THE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. LOOKING AT
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM BMX, IT IS VERY DRY BELOW 500MB. THEREFORE,
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
LOW CHANCE (20-40%) OF SHOWERS RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ENTERING INTO
NW AL. OVERALL A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT EXTENDING THE NE EDGE OF THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NW ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. BY THEN, SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE. MORE
MODELS HAVE SHOWN THIS, SO CONFIDENCE WE WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HAS INCREASED.
HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE FORCING FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVERALL, ESPECIALLY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MOST GUIDANCE DOES SHOW FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THOUGH AND POSSIBLY THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IF WE
SEE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THAT ARE SUBSTANTIAL, THEN HIGHS COULD
CLIMB HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED INTO THE LOWER 70S IN SOME
LOCATIONS. AT THIS POINT, NOT EXPECTING THAT GIVEN CLOUD COVER
SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS EVEN WITHOUT ANY CLOUD
BREAKS.
WE WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW, MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE MUCAPE AND NO SBCAPE
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY THIS FAR NORTH. IF WE SEE
THOSE HIGHER TEMPERATURES, THAT MIGHT CHANGE AND STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME.
STRONG SHEAR, STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL HELICITY, AND DEEP FORCING WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION, AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI AREA. THIS WILL MOVE
RAINFALL AND ELEVATED CONVECTION TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL JET EAST
INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
NEVER MIXES UP TO MORE THAN 30 KNOTS TO 35 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
WILL LIKELY BE PRODUCED WITH THIS KIND OF MIXING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLE. BASED ON THE
LACK OF A LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE, NOT SURE WE WILL SEE WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS, BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY BREEZY.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MUCH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ALOFT. HOWEVER, AGAIN WE WILL BE DECOUPLED FROM THESE WINDS. GOOD
SHEAR VALUES VERY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE IN
PLACE REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH. LUCKILY, AS
MENTIONED EARLIER ANY INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED IN FORECAST GUIDANCE.
THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THE
PICTURE. HOWEVER, HIGH PWAT VALUES COUPLED WITH THE STRONG FORCING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SOLID 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
BY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION AFTER PRECIPITATION STOPS.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING TOWARD NOON INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY TO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S AGAIN BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. WE COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF MORE DEFINITE STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THAT
PERIOD.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, STRONGER FORCING REDEVELOPS
BRIEFLY. SOME MODELS KEEP STRONG SHEAR OVER THE AREA AND SHOW SOME
WEAK SBCAPE DEVELOPING OVER TENNESSEE. THIS COULD PRODUCE A VERY
LOW TOPPED LOW END THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BRIEFLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW THIS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ONLY INCLUDED ISOLATED POP
FOR NOW IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BETWEEN 5
AND 10 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT IN SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS WHERE THEY WILL BE LIGHTER. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION, BUT WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP LOWS
FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE MAINLY.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER SATURDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
IN PLACE. IT SHOULD BE COOLER THOUGH WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THIS BRIEF COOLDOWN WON'T LAST LONG, AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS HIGH DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY, WHILE A NEW STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
WITH ZONAL FLOW RETURNING AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
GULF EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUICK TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. THIS GENERAL SYNOPTIC SETUP DOESN'T
CHANGE MUCH AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS WARMER CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SEEM LIKE
A GOOD POSSIBILITY MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES CLOSER TO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AS WELL EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW THOUGH HAVE KEPT POP
OUT OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SE/SSE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES, AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30 BETWEEN 20-00Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM -SHRA. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL AFTER 00Z AS -SHRA BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...AMP.24
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