160
FXUS64 KHUN 301159
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
559 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
LIGHT VIRGA (AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES) NOTED ON RADAR EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A DEEPENING UPPER-STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE WEST. PREFRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STILL REMAINS TOO DRY TO SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING. GRADUALLY, THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO 20-40% THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. HOWEVER, MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AS THE BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING
REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY ATTEMPT TO MODIFY THIS DRIER AIR MASS DURING THE
DAY. THE BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON,
KEEPING POPS/QPF A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THROUGH
00Z (GENERALLY IN THE 20-40%). MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME
VERY MEAGER ELEVATED CAPE LATE IN THE DAY, AND A VERY LOW CHANCE
FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
STORY AT LEAST TODAY WILL BE THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES, WHICH
WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE THE
DENSE CLOUD COVER THANKS TO THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.3-1.5"
(NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR JAN 30-31 PER BMX SOUNDING CLIMO).
DEEPER FORCING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LOW AND
A 60-70 KT LLJ THAT WILL BE PUSHING NE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WILL
CREATE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTH.
FOR NOW, DON'T THINK WE'LL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN ANY STRONGER WINDS
AND THESE VALUES ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. STILL, THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING WE'LL NEED TO WATCH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY DUE TO THE VERY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/WIND FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE VERY
HIGH (100%) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION -- WITH THE EXTREMELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT CREATING EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD
STORM TOTAL QPF FOR AROUND 1" IS FORECAST, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW ALABAMA AND
IN LOCATIONS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, WITH MOST PRECIPITATION SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BETWEEN 18-21Z AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW.
WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE IN
THE DAY, BEFORE THE TRUE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY, BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY PIVOT TO THE SOUTH AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO POTENTIALLY LOWER 70S. A SUNNY, WARM, AND PLEASANT
DAY FOR HUMANS AND GROUNDHOGS ALIKE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, CREATING RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CREATE VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
FEBRUARY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK IN THE 40S AND 50S. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS INTRODUCED ON
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY APPROACH THE AREA, BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS FEATURE
REMAINS LOW A WEEK IN ADVANCE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A SLOW-MOVING FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND -SHRA TO BOTH SITES TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 21Z. -SHRA WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND LINGER FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, PROMOTING MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP.24
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