596
FXUS64 KHUN 301502
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
902 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY)
ISSUED AT 902 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
A BAND OF -RA HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING IN UNISON
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND THETA-E ADVECTION. HEIGHT
RISES AT 8-5H ARE PROGGED TODAY, WHICH WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AT A MINIMUM. THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO ALLOW FOR LIMITED SUNSHINE BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY,
BUT OVERALL, IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDS FOR MOST PART. DESPITE THAT,
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
FOR MOST AREAS, WITH UPPER 60S IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREAS
FROM THE SHOALS TO SOUTHERN CULLMAN COUNTY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-65.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.3-1.5"
(NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR JAN 30-31 PER BMX SOUNDING CLIMO).
DEEPER FORCING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LOW AND
A 60-70 KT LLJ THAT WILL BE PUSHING NE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WILL
CREATE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTH.
FOR NOW, DON'T THINK WE'LL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN ANY STRONGER WINDS
AND THESE VALUES ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. STILL, THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING WE'LL NEED TO WATCH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY DUE TO THE VERY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/WIND FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE VERY
HIGH (100%) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION -- WITH THE EXTREMELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT CREATING EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD
STORM TOTAL QPF FOR AROUND 1" IS FORECAST, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW ALABAMA AND
IN LOCATIONS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, WITH MOST PRECIPITATION SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BETWEEN 18-21Z AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW.
WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE IN
THE DAY, BEFORE THE TRUE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY, BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY PIVOT TO THE SOUTH AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO POTENTIALLY LOWER 70S. A SUNNY, WARM, AND PLEASANT
DAY FOR HUMANS AND GROUNDHOGS ALIKE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, CREATING RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CREATE VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
FEBRUARY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK IN THE 40S AND 50S. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS INTRODUCED ON
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY APPROACH THE AREA, BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS FEATURE
REMAINS LOW A WEEK IN ADVANCE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A SLOW-MOVING FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND -SHRA TO BOTH SITES TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 21Z. -SHRA WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND LINGER FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, PROMOTING MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP
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