192
FXUS64 KHUN 302356
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
556 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
AT 18Z, A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN FAR SOUTHWEST AR WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED EAST INTO MIDDLE TN AND TROUGH EXTENDING INTO EAST TX.
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WERE ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN MS AND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY
THIS EVENING. A 5H LOW ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO KS/MO WITH A TROUGH EXTENSION INTO TX. A FRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND 8H LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60KT (PERHAPS HIGHER) TONIGHT. THE BAND
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z, WITH A
NARROW LINE MAINTAINING ITSELF PAST THE I-59 CORRIDOR BY 11-12Z.
POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS
LASTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF HIGHER GUST
WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS WELL. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
WILL RESULT FROM THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND WARM ADVECTION.
ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS/COLD POOL WILL PIVOT EAST INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. PER THE SPC OUTLOOK, THERE WILL BE SOME LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON, SPREADING EAST
INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELS NEAR
12000-15000 FT, SO UNSURE HOW MUCH LIGHTNING AND OR SMALL HAIL
THAT WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR. SO, EXPECTING MOSTLY SHOWERS AT THIS
POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR
MOST AREAS, PERHAPS THE UPPER 60S IN NORTHWEST AL.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
GENERALLY A ZONAL PATTERN AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW THIS
TROUGH INTO SATURDAY, THEN BECOMING MILDER AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PRODUCES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S SATURDAY, LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, CREATING RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CREATE VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
FEBRUARY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK IN THE 40S AND 50S. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS INTRODUCED ON
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY APPROACH THE AREA, BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS FEATURE
REMAINS LOW A WEEK IN ADVANCE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING (KHSV - 08Z AND KMSL - 07Z). THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF ON
AND OFF SHRA BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z AT BOTH TERMINALS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE. THEREFORE A TEMPO GROUP
DROPPING VSBYS TO MVFR CONDITIONS WAS INCLUDED. LLWS IS EXPECTED
AT THE START OFF THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS WHERE AROUND
2000 FEET WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KNOTS FROM THE SSW.
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR OR LOWER CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MAYBE A FEW -TSRA MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS
AFTER 07Z TO 08Z WITH CONTINUING LLWS AROUND 45 KNOTS FROM THE
SSW. AROUND 15Z AT KMSL (MAYBE A TAD SOONER), EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO END, THOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER. -RA MAY PERSIST AT BIT
LONGER AT KHSV INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE ENDING WITH
LINGERING MVFR CIGS CONTINUING. A PROB30 GROUP WAS INCLUDED FOR
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF A FEW
SHOWERS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...KTW
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