550
FXUS64 KHUN 310551
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1151 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED ACROSS NW ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THIS ACTIVITY, RAINFALL HAS PRIMARILY
BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE DUE TO DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE (DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES). SSE WINDS HAVE BEEN MAINLY 15
MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES. A FEW HIGHER ISOLATED
GUSTS HAVE BEEN SEEN AT ONE OR TWO SITES IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE
PAST 2 HOURS. HOWEVER, THESE HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY ISOLATED. COULD
SEE A FEW GUSTS IN PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN OR SOUTHERN LAWRENCE OR IN
OUR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS GET VERY BRIEFLY TO 35 MPH TONIGHT. THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY WIND
ADVISORY PRODUCT THOUGH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
WINDS THOUGH BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH GUSTING MAYBE TO AROUND 30 MPH
AT TIMES IN MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS ON
FRIDAY.
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AND STRETCHES FROM WESTERN
TENNESSEE SSW THROUGH WESTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NE MISSOURI.
THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES EAST THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. GOOD SHEAR AND
STRONG LIFT CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER, SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
STILL NON-EXISTENT IN GUIDANCE. THIS MAKES SENSE BASED ON CURRENT
ANALYSIS OF SBCAPE MAINLY IN SW MISSISSIPPI. SOME ELEVATED WEAK
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY MODELS, BUT NOT MUCH. SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS
THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL LOOKS LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE RUNS, MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE VERY DRY AIR THAT HAS TO BE
OVERCOME NEAR THE SURFACE INITIALLY. A GOOD HALF INCH AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING A BIT MORE
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TOWARDS DAYBREAK, AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL HELPS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
GENERALLY A ZONAL PATTERN AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW THIS
TROUGH INTO SATURDAY, THEN BECOMING MILDER AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PRODUCES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S SATURDAY, LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, CREATING RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CREATE VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
FEBRUARY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK IN THE 40S AND 50S. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS INTRODUCED ON
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY APPROACH THE AREA, BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS FEATURE
REMAINS LOW A WEEK IN ADVANCE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 7-8Z. LLWS
IS EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS WHERE
AROUND 2000 FEET WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KNOTS FROM THE
SSW. MORE PERSISTENT MVFR OR LOWER CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MAYBE A FEW -TSRA MOVE INTO THE
TERMINALS AFTER 07Z TO 08Z WITH CONTINUING LLWS AROUND 45 KNOTS
FROM THE SSW. AROUND 15Z AT KMSL (MAYBE A TAD SOONER), EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO END, THOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER. -RA MAY
PERSIST AT BIT LONGER AT KHSV INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE ENDING WITH LINGERING MVFR CIGS CONTINUING. A PROB30 GROUP
WAS INCLUDED FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF A FEW SHOWERS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...KTW
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