020
FXUS64 KHUN 311827
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT QUICKLY EAST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
IN NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN TN WHICH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH THE TROUGH. LOW ELS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH WON'T RULE IT OUT AND MAY AMEND AS TRENDS
EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON. PARTIAL OR TEMPORARY CLEARING LATE TONIGHT
MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS TREND
IS LOW, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TREND CLOSELY AS WELL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH UPPER
30S IN A FEW VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LOWER CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO TN AND NORTH AL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN,
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CLOUD DECK MAY NOT FULLY OVERLAP
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. OR, COULD ERODE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING DURING THE DAY. THUS, THE CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS TRICKY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 50S WHERE THE
CLOUDS STICK AROUND BUT COULD POKE INTO THE LOWER 60S WHERE ANY
PARTIAL SUNSHINE OCCURS.
ZONAL 5H FLOW DEVELOPS INTO SUNDAY WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SOUTHWEST
TO WEST FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN CONUS. 8H TEMPS WILL
WARM TO 10-12C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS, FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S (EXCEPT FOR A FEW EASTERN VALLEY UPPER 30S).
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST, PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS OUR REGION WILL REMAIN LOCATED
ALONG THE NORTHERN RIM OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LIGHT-MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE, TO THE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
THAT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM A NEW AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS, COUPLED WITH A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 20-25 KNOTS, WILL RESULT IN
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE L-M 70S, WITH LOWS INCREASING AS WELL
(INTO THE U50S-L60S BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNINGS). AS DEWPOINTS
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE U50S-L60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT, LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER, WE HAVE KEPT
POPS ~20% THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED THEM TO ~30-40% ON
THURSDAY (AT WHICH TIME MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO POOL ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
A BAND OF SHRA WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, EXITING THE KHSV AREA BY 20Z. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 035AGL (VFR) WILL REDEVELOP AS AN AREA OF SHRA REDEVELOPS
AFTER 20-22Z IN NORTHWEST AL. THESE SHRA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AND END BY 03-05Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
AMEND AS NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT, LOWER CLOUDS
BELOW 010AGL (IFR) ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PATCHY BR OR
FG. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST BY 16Z WITH CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 015-025AGL
RANGE (MVFR).
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...17
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