645
FXUS64 KHUN 010633
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1233 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 736 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
AS OF MOMENT, AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING IN A WEST TO EAST
MANNER ACROSS THE MORE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN N-S ORIENTED LINE FROM SCOTTSBORO
TO GUNTERSVILLE. THIS ACTIVITY WAS A BIT STRONGER IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY
THUS FAR HAS ENDED AS THE ACTIVITY OVERALL BECOMES WEAKER. AREA
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
A TROUGH FEATURE EXTENDING SOUTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
IN/OH SHOULD SWEEP TO THE EAST, HELPING TO END SHOWER CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE MID AND LATE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WAS THINNING AFTER THE SHOWERS HAVE PASSED,
THE SATELLITE VIEW SHOWED MORE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE
OZARKS HEADING TO THE SE, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH LIGHT WINDS. GIVEN A FEW HOURS OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS, AM THINKING THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE, SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR THE
LATE NIGHT. THE FORECAST OTHERWISE IS IN FINE SHAPE.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LOWER CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO TN AND NORTH AL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN,
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CLOUD DECK MAY NOT FULLY OVERLAP
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. OR, COULD ERODE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING DURING THE DAY. THUS, THE CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS TRICKY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 50S WHERE THE
CLOUDS STICK AROUND BUT COULD POKE INTO THE LOWER 60S WHERE ANY
PARTIAL SUNSHINE OCCURS.
ZONAL 5H FLOW DEVELOPS INTO SUNDAY WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SOUTHWEST
TO WEST FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN CONUS. 8H TEMPS WILL
WARM TO 10-12C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS, FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S (EXCEPT FOR A FEW EASTERN VALLEY UPPER 30S).
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST, PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS OUR REGION WILL REMAIN LOCATED
ALONG THE NORTHERN RIM OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LIGHT-MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE, TO THE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
THAT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM A NEW AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS, COUPLED WITH A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 20-25 KNOTS, WILL RESULT IN
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE L-M 70S, WITH LOWS INCREASING AS WELL
(INTO THE U50S-L60S BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNINGS). AS DEWPOINTS
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE U50S-L60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT, LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER, WE HAVE KEPT
POPS ~20% THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED THEM TO ~30-40% ON
THURSDAY (AT WHICH TIME MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO POOL ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
NORTHERN AL EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR IFR VSBY REDUCTIONS AT THE HSV TERMINAL THRU 10Z, WITH
EXPECTATIONS THAT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
STRONGER MIXING AND MINOR DRY AIR ADVECTION BEYOND THIS POINT.
LOW/MVFR-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH SCATTERING OF THIS CLOUD
DECK EXPECTED BY ~20Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD
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