152
FXUS64 KHUN 012241
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
441 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID TN VALLEY FOR THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS, AIDED BY LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG/BELOW
H85. AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO DIMINISH GOING MORE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING PERIOD, LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS OF NE
AL. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN COUPLED WITH CURRENT DEW PTS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S WILL ALSO TRANSLATE INTO OVERNIGHT LOWS
AGAIN FALLING PREDOM INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR MOST SPOTS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS A
NEAR ZONAL WNW FLOW REGIME REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL ALSO REMAIN LAYERED FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE SE REGION, TRANSLATING INTO A
CONTINUATION OF DRY/TRANQUIL WX CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL TN
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL RESULT IN A SSW
LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THRU
MON/MON NIGHT AS WELL. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WILL GIVE
WAY TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S MON, WHILE LOWS INTO MON
NIGHT TREND IN THE MID 40S/LOWER 50S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COUPLED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AGAIN IN THE
SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS OF NE AL BOTH SUN/MON NIGHTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
EXTENDED RANGE MODEL DATA STILL INDICATES THAT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY, AS
PERSISTENT SSW FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING CYCLONE
ACROSS EASTERN CO FORCES DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE U50S-L60S.
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL RESULT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, IT APPEARS AS IF HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING (AT THE EARLIEST). THIS IS THE TIMEFRAME WHEN A
CONFLUENCE AXIS (MARKING THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
TO OUR NORTH AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS TO OUR SOUTH)
MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE EVENTUALLY
STALLING.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING, AS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INDUCES DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST. AS THIS LOW ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL INSTIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT ADVANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION (BEFORE STALLING TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY). ALTHOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT
CAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY (IN SPITE OF TEMPS
IN THE 70S/DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S), DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE IF NOT A BIT HIGHER. THUS, WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS
IN INSTABILITY OVER THE COMING DAYS AS FAVORABLE SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD THE
ATMOSPHERE BE MORE UNSTABLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 441 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS THE LOWER CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO RECEDE TO THE NORTH. MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SW WINDS
PICKING BACK UP NEAR 8KTS TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS A LOW
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN
LEFT OF OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD THE
THREAT FOR FOG INCREASE, FOG CAN AND WILL BE ADDED IN FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...RAD
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