941
FXUS64 KHUN 020540
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1140 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND MOST OF OUR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES AT 840 PM CST. WHAT CLOUD
COVER THERE IS IS SHRINKING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING OVER
NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE
REMAINING AROUND 5 MPH IN SOME AREAS COURTESY OF A WEAK RESIDUAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NO PRECIPITATION) THAT HAS STALLED AND IS
DECAYING OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY IS STALLED
OVER THE AREA, WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BETWEEN 3 TO 5 MPH IN SOME
LOCATIONS, EXCEPT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS,
DRIER AIR HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH NEAR AND BEHIND THIS SURFACE
FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. THESE
WINDS AND THE DRIER AIR MAKES THE QUESTION OF FOG DEVELOPMENT A
BIT TRICKY TONIGHT AND THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF CULLMAN COUNTY.
NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE DENSE THOUGH.
SEVERAL CAM MODELS MOVE THIS WEAK DECAYING FRONT MOVING BACK TO
THE NORTH LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DEWPOINTS BACK UP LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. AS FAR NORTH AS SOME MODELS TAKE IT,
SURFACE WINDS MAY BECOME CALM IN MORE LOCATIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK
ON SUNDAY. LESS CERTAIN THIS WILL HAPPEN THIS EVENING AND AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE EXPECTED DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST
FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE THEN.
HOWEVER, SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THUS,
INCREASED FOG COVERAGE IN GRIDS MORE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY CONDITIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LIKELY WILL SEE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
LOWS OVERALL WILL BE COOLER, BUT NOT TOO BAD. EXPECT THEM TO
OSCILLATE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MAINLY.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS A
NEAR ZONAL WNW FLOW REGIME REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL ALSO REMAIN LAYERED FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE SE REGION, TRANSLATING INTO A
CONTINUATION OF DRY/TRANQUIL WX CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL TN
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL RESULT IN A SSW
LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THRU
MON/MON NIGHT AS WELL. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WILL GIVE
WAY TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S MON, WHILE LOWS INTO MON
NIGHT TREND IN THE MID 40S/LOWER 50S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COUPLED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AGAIN IN THE
SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS OF NE AL BOTH SUN/MON NIGHTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
EXTENDED RANGE MODEL DATA STILL INDICATES THAT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY, AS
PERSISTENT SSW FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING CYCLONE
ACROSS EASTERN CO FORCES DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE U50S-L60S.
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL RESULT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, IT APPEARS AS IF HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING (AT THE EARLIEST). THIS IS THE TIMEFRAME WHEN A
CONFLUENCE AXIS (MARKING THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
TO OUR NORTH AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS TO OUR SOUTH)
MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE EVENTUALLY
STALLING.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING, AS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INDUCES DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST. AS THIS LOW ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL INSTIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT ADVANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION (BEFORE STALLING TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY). ALTHOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT
CAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY (IN SPITE OF TEMPS
IN THE 70S/DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S), DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE IF NOT A BIT HIGHER. THUS, WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS
IN INSTABILITY OVER THE COMING DAYS AS FAVORABLE SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD THE
ATMOSPHERE BE MORE UNSTABLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
LIGHT WINDS MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AROUND MIDNIGHT
AT KMSL, BUT ONLY VERY BRIEFLY. EXPECT WINDS TO LESSEN AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER
VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG WERE INCLUDED AT KMSL. HOWEVER NOT SURE
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AT THE THE HSV TERMINAL.
THEREFORE, KEPT LOWER VSBYS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THAT LOCATION.
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...KTW
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