041
FXUS64 KHUN 021046
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
446 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF 25-35 KNOTS EXISTS ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING, WITH THE REGION LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN
RIM OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FL PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SSE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED BETWEEN A RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE U.S-CANADIAN BORDER. ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY/LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE, SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED AND PRIMARILY CONFINED TO LARGER VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA.
LATER THIS MORNING, WINDS ALOFT WILL VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOTION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS). WARM ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SSW
AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE 850-MB LEVEL INCREASES TO 15-25
KNOTS, WITH THE END RESULT BEING A WARM AFTERNOON FEATURING HIGHS
IN THE L-M 60S (ELEVATED TERRAIN) AND M60S-L70S (VALLEY).
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION EITHER
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES WARMER
(COMPARED TO THE CURRENT PERIOD) DUE TO GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS YIELDING
WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MONDAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, GRADIENT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS A COLD
FRONT (MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES) PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AXIS MAY EVEN DRIFT AS FAR
SOUTHEASTWARD AS OUR CWFA ON TUESDAY, BUT THIS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
GIVEN HIGH SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS, AN INCREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
DEWPOINTS RISE BACK INTO THE U50S-L60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS
WILL RECOVER INTO THE U40S-L50S MONDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND WEAKER THERMAL ADVECTION.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE CYCLONE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO. ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS A
BROAD REGION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT (FROM THE OZARKS EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY) AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL LIE, WE
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 20-30% POP IN OUR CWFA (HIGHEST FOR NW AL).
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
LATEST EXTENDED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK ON
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PARTIAL PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND WEAKER DISTURBANCE
TO ITS SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR REGION (ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE'S WARM FRONT) WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH
TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN SW FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE TN VALLEY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA, WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MID-MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT IS APPROACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY, LACK OF
STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT SHOULD FORCE A GRADUAL DISSIPATING
TREND AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL APPEARS AS IF BOTH KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL FAVORABLY OVERLAP TO SUPPORT A RISK
OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WITH PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY MORNING AND WITH THE FRONT ITSELF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, A COOLER/DRIER MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT (WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR REGION AND
SHOULD RESIDE TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY). HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE U40S-L50S ON FRIDAY, BRIDGED BY LOWS IN THE M-U 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON SATURDAY, THE BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS, WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION SUPPORTING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
LIGHT WINDS MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AROUND MIDNIGHT
AT KMSL, BUT ONLY VERY BRIEFLY. EXPECT WINDS TO LESSEN AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER
VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG WERE INCLUDED AT KMSL. HOWEVER NOT SURE
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AT THE THE HSV TERMINAL.
THEREFORE, KEPT LOWER VSBYS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THAT LOCATION.
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...KTW
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