112
FXUS64 KHUN 021950
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
150 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LAYERED FROM THE NE ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE
SE REGION THIS SUN AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY WARM/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY, WITH CURRENT TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. LOOK FOR THESE TEMPS TO PERHAPS CLIMB A
COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES BEFORE THE ONSET OF THE EVENING HRS. OTHER
THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS OUT OF THE NW FILTERING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT, QUIET WX CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MON, AS
LOWS FALL PREDOM INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR MOST SPOTS. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL, MAINLY IN THE
SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS OF NE AL.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS THE SFC HIGH GRADUALLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SW/W SHOULD AGAIN
TRANSLATE INTO SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS MON/TUE, AS HIGHS BOTH DAYS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S/NEAR 70F, WHILE LOWS MON NIGHT TREND IN
THE LOWER 50S/NEAR 50F. MOISTURE BELOW H85 WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE, AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OUT OF THE WNW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING
FRONT, AS THIS RAINFALL GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE EVENING.
LATEST NWP GUIDANCE THOUGH DOES SHOW THIS FRONT STALLING NORTH OF
THE AREA TUE NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EARLY WED TRENDING MORE
IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING COUPLED WITH MINIMAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
TO THE 20-30% RANGE TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
LATEST EXTENDED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK ON
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PARTIAL PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND WEAKER DISTURBANCE
TO ITS SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR REGION (ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE'S WARM FRONT) WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH
TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN SW FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE TN VALLEY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA, WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MID-MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT IS APPROACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY, LACK OF
STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT SHOULD FORCE A GRADUAL DISSIPATING
TREND AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL APPEARS AS IF BOTH KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL FAVORABLY OVERLAP TO SUPPORT A RISK
OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WITH PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY MORNING AND WITH THE FRONT ITSELF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, A COOLER/DRIER MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT (WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR REGION AND
SHOULD RESIDE TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY). HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE U40S-L50S ON FRIDAY, BRIDGED BY LOWS IN THE M-U 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON SATURDAY, THE BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS, WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION SUPPORTING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING LAYERED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
INTO THE SE REGION, VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU THE TAF
PERIOD. SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SW AROUND 9-10KT WILL ALSO BECOME
LIGHT/VAR THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...09
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