473
FXUS64 KHUN 030202
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
802 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 801 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVENING AFTER A BEAUTIFUL
DAY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. AFTER HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S (HSV)
TO 70F (MSL), CURRENT TEMPS ARE RANGING WHERE NORMAL HIGHS
TYPICALLY ARE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR: IN THE MIDDLE 50S. A FEW
UPPER 40S ARE NOTED IN FAR NE AL THIS EVENING, BUT OTHERWISE, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE BIG BEND OF FL, CALM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MORNING LOWS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AHEAD WILL REMAIN MILD, ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S
TONIGHT.
THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS HANDLE BOTH ONGOING AND EXPECTED TRENDS
FOR OVERNIGHT, SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY THIS EVENING FOR THE
PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS THE SFC HIGH GRADUALLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SW/W SHOULD AGAIN
TRANSLATE INTO SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS MON/TUE, AS HIGHS BOTH DAYS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S/NEAR 70F, WHILE LOWS MON NIGHT TREND IN
THE LOWER 50S/NEAR 50F. MOISTURE BELOW H85 WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE, AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OUT OF THE WNW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING
FRONT, AS THIS RAINFALL GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE EVENING.
LATEST NWP GUIDANCE THOUGH DOES SHOW THIS FRONT STALLING NORTH OF
THE AREA TUE NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EARLY WED TRENDING MORE
IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING COUPLED WITH MINIMAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
TO THE 20-30% RANGE TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
LATEST EXTENDED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK ON
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PARTIAL PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND WEAKER DISTURBANCE
TO ITS SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR REGION (ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE'S WARM FRONT) WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH
TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN SW FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE TN VALLEY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA, WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MID-MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT IS APPROACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY, LACK OF
STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT SHOULD FORCE A GRADUAL DISSIPATING
TREND AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL APPEARS AS IF BOTH KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL FAVORABLY OVERLAP TO SUPPORT A RISK
OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WITH PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY MORNING AND WITH THE FRONT ITSELF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, A COOLER/DRIER MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT (WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR REGION AND
SHOULD RESIDE TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY). HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE U40S-L50S ON FRIDAY, BRIDGED BY LOWS IN THE M-U 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON SATURDAY, THE BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS, WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION SUPPORTING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...12
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...30
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