662
FXUS64 KHUN 031507
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
907 AM CST MON FEB 3 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY)
ISSUED AT 907 AM CST MON FEB 3 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH
CLEAR CONDITIONS ONGOING AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN
CONTROL OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES
SHOW SOME LOW STRATUS THAT FORMED LAST NIGHT TRYING TO OOZE INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS OF 15Z. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY CLIP
PART OF THE SHOALS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER 18Z DUE TO GOOD MIXING -- AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZES WILL RESULT IN A VERY WARM DAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
SURGE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
TEMPERATURES MAY COME WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF THE RECORD HIGH
VALUES. OVERALL, A VERY BEAUTIFUL EARLY FEBRUARY DAY!
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST MON FEB 3 2025
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD FRONT (MARKING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DISCUSSED ABOVE) WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIE FROM
NORTHERN AR THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TN AND INTO EASTERN KY BY 12Z
TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND VEER TO WSW AS THIS
OCCURS, WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING OF THE PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES OF RAIN OR LIGHT DRIZZLE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
THE FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS SLIPS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWFA,
AND WE HAVE INDICATED COOLER HIGH TEMPS IN THE M60S-L70S
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS.
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES, INDUCING DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CO/NORTHEASTERN NM. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM CENTRAL MO
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS AS THIS OCCURS, BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT (AND EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR
REGION), WE WILL MAINTAIN A 20-30% POP WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER
NORTHWEST AL.
AS THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE BEGINS TO TRACK EAST- NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK ON WEDNESDAY, EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY WITH TIME, WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
POSSIBLE IN OUR REGION AS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO
ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 35-40 KNOTS AS THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. ENHANCED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
RELATED TO THE JET MAY SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITHIN A DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS FEATURING SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. THUS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TIMEFRAME FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST MON FEB 3 2025
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY, WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE
FRONT, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY (WHERE DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE WIND SHIFT AXIS). THE COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY THE REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND (WHICH WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING HOURS). THAT SAID, THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MINOR RISK FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
(ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR REGION).
THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AXIS (AND LEADING EDGE OF A
COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS) WILL MAKE IT ACROSS AL ON FRIDAY
MORNING, BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AS A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. FOR THIS REASON, WE HAVE INDICATED A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION IN TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INDICATED ONLY A VERY LOW POP IN THE GRIDS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION WILL YIELD ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING, PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS WITH THIS EVENT
APPEARS TO BE MORE STABLE (COMPARED TO THURSDAY) LIMITING CONCERN
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, WITH THE AXIS OF A
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD/COLD ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CST MON FEB 3 2025
ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THRU THIS
EVENING, WITH A LGT SE WIND THAT WILL VEER TO SSW AND INCREASE TO
10G18 KTS BY 16Z. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RATHER
QUICKLY BEGINNING ARND 5-7Z AS WINDS DIMINISH AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING AT 6Z, WITH PROB30 GROUPS
FOR IFR CIGS AND MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS IN VERY LGT RA/LGT DZ
INCLUDED BTWN 8-12Z AT BOTH AIRPORTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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