332
FXUS64 KHUN 032047
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
247 PM CST MON FEB 3 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST MON FEB 3 2025
AN INCREDIBLY MILD/WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COMFORTABLE AND MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING.
HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DROP SE
INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WHAT
THIS WILL MEAN FOR TONIGHT IS A GRADUAL INFLUX IN CLOUD COVER
AFTER 06Z AS SW/WSW FLOW CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THESE CLOUDS, THE CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS
(ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE), SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS FOG WILL STICK AROUND
INTO THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL
ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RELETIVELY MILD TONIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BEING COMMON.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST MON FEB 3 2025
LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO REINFORCE THIS WARM/MOIST AIR MASS,
WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA. A GLANCE AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY DOES SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER, TEMPERATURES IN THIS WARM REGIME WILL STILL BE ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SWING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SENDING A FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REINFORCE THIS
WARM/MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AND WILL RESULT IN SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS WINDOW. ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN THE
SHEAR PROFILE (DEPENDING ON THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT). MOST
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN
NATURE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST MON FEB 3 2025
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY, WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE
FRONT, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY (WHERE DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE WIND SHIFT AXIS). THE COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY THE REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND (WHICH WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING HOURS). THAT SAID, THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PARAMETERS MAY
SUPPORT A MINOR RISK FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (ESPECIALLY
AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR REGION).
THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AXIS (AND LEADING EDGE OF A
COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS) WILL MAKE IT ACROSS AL ON FRIDAY
MORNING, BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AS A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. FOR THIS REASON, WE HAVE INDICATED A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION IN TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INDICATED ONLY A VERY LOW POP IN THE GRIDS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION WILL YIELD ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING, PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS WITH THIS EVENT
APPEARS TO BE MORE STABLE (COMPARED TO THURSDAY) LIMITING CONCERN
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, WITH THE AXIS OF A
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD/COLD ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST MON FEB 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT, BEFORE LOWER STRATUS DECKS JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS
(CEILINGS AROUND 3.5 KFT) WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WANE AFTER
SUNSET.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...AMP
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