837
FXUS64 KHUN 040313
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
913 PM CST MON FEB 3 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 913 PM CST MON FEB 3 2025
UPPER RIDGING AND WARM WESTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS HAVE PERSISTED THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS OF 9PM. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE RISK FOR PATCHY TO DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND RIVER VALLEYS.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A
SFC FRONT NEARS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE AL TO MID 50S WEST OF I-65.
SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST WERE MADE
DURING THE EVENING UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST MON FEB 3 2025
LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO REINFORCE THIS WARM/MOIST AIR MASS,
WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA. A GLANCE AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY DOES SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER, TEMPERATURES IN THIS WARM REGIME WILL STILL BE ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SWING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SENDING A FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REINFORCE THIS
WARM/MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AND WILL RESULT IN SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS WINDOW. ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN THE
SHEAR PROFILE (DEPENDING ON THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT). MOST
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN
NATURE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST MON FEB 3 2025
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY, WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE
FRONT, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY (WHERE DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE WIND SHIFT AXIS). THE COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY THE REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND (WHICH WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING HOURS). THAT SAID, THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PARAMETERS MAY
SUPPORT A MINOR RISK FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (ESPECIALLY
AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR REGION).
THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AXIS (AND LEADING EDGE OF A
COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS) WILL MAKE IT ACROSS AL ON FRIDAY
MORNING, BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AS A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. FOR THIS REASON, WE HAVE INDICATED A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION IN TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INDICATED ONLY A VERY LOW POP IN THE GRIDS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION WILL YIELD ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING, PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS WITH THIS EVENT
APPEARS TO BE MORE STABLE (COMPARED TO THURSDAY) LIMITING CONCERN
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, WITH THE AXIS OF A
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD/COLD ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST MON FEB 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE
FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, DROPPING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN
CASE AMENDMENTS ARE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...25
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