611
FXUS64 KHUN 041711
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1111 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION, CLIMATE
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY)
ISSUED AT 807 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
LOW STRATUS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION WITH DRIZZLE BEING
REPORTED AT SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION BELOW 850 HPA WILL LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY, WITH A STOUT INVERSION IN PLACE UP 700 HPA. ALL
THIS TO SAY, THINK THE LOW STATUS (CEILINGS AROUND 1 KFT) AND
DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THESE,
SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL STILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS WARM/MOIST AIR MASS.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WON'T WARM AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY, THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD STILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS -- WITH A FEW SPOTS AGAIN HITTING THE 70 DEGREE
MARK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF THE STALLED FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AXIS WILL
REMAIN TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT, WITH LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING AS TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE L-M 50S. HOWEVER, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH (PREDICTED TO
ADVANCE INLAND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CA TODAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT) WILL INDUCE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO/NORTHEASTERN NM, WHICH SHOULD FORCE THE
STALLED BOUNDARY TO RETURN NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS IT
SPREADS INTO THE MO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT HELPING TO INITIATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT
FROM NORTHEASTERN AR INTO NORTHERN MS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
TOMORROW. PRECISELY WHERE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
OCCUR (AND WHETHER THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ALONG/NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT OR ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT) IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT WITH MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN TO 35-45 KNOTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH,
SHEAR WILL IMPROVE WITH TIME AND MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS. AT THIS POINT, THE GREATEST
RISK FOR OUR REGION WOULD APPEAR TO BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AS ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS THAT PROBABILITIES FOR SBCAPE TO
REACH OR EXCEED 500 J/KG ONLY RANGE FROM 30-35% ALONG THE AL-MS
BORDER TO AROUND 15% NEAR I-65. NEVERTHELESS, WITH A SW LOW-LEVEL
JET OF 25-30 KNOTS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE FROM THE 0Z HREF SUGGESTS THAT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND
OUT OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH SSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PREDICTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WE WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION REGIME FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING, OUR
PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID- SOUTH
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY DIURNALLY
INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO OUR NORTHWEST, IT STILL APPEARS
AS IF THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH OUR CWFA UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING (AT WHICH POINT CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON A NOTABLE
WEAKENING TREND GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT).
THUS, WE ARE BECOMING LESS CONCERNED FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS, BUT
HAVE MAINTAINED MEDIUM-HIGH POPS (50-70%) AND INDICATED LOWS IN
THE M-U 50S, AS IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR CWFA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY,
WITH A STALLED FRONT LIKELY TO BISECT THE LOCAL AREA IN AN E-TO-W
FASHION. LATEST EXTENDED RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS
THE EASTWARD MOTION OF A BROADER LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH (ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS) INITIATES DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LEE CYCLONE
ACROSS EASTERN CO. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. HOWEVER, HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS (AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) WILL COME FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
IN/OH, SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN
VALLEY. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION/LOCATION OF THE BROADER LONGWAVE
TROUGH ON SUNDAY, LIFT ABOVE THE SHALLOW POSTFRONTAL INVERSION
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD/COLD ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY
MORNING, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM NW-TO-SE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DEPTH OF THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS INCREASES. LOWS ON
MONDAY MORNING WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID 30S, WITH A MODERATELY
STRONG NORTH WIND PROVIDING WIND CHILLS IN THE U20S-L30S. CHANCES
FOR RAIN MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF LOW STRATUS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO AROUND 4 KFT AFTER
20Z, BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 04Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AFTER SUNRISE, CHANCES
FOR -SHRA WILL INCREASE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS BELOW 1 KFT AT BOTH
TERMINALS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS 12-18Z TIMEFRAME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 807 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN FEBRUARY 11-13, 2025. PRECIPITATION
EXCEEDING 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...AMP.24
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