693
FXUS64 KHUN 041957
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
157 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, CLIMATE
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECKS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING (WITH THE STOUT
INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE TONIGHT). JUST A FEW BREAKS IN THESE
CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN PLACE, WE
CAN EXPECT A VERY MILD NIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WEAK FORCING IN THIS VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LOW CHANCES (20-30%)
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z AND HAVE
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, A BULK OF OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE FRONT AND WITH IT STILL TO THE
SOUTH, HAVE KEPT OUT BEST CHANCES FOR LATER ON DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE SECTION BELOW.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, FORCING THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO CREEP BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP
LAYER FORCING FROM THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND THE NORTHWARD
ADVANCING FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION FROM THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AN INITIAL GLANCE AT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES
SOME MEAGER CAPE VALUES ALOFT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AND RELATIVELY POOR LAPSE RATES, IT
IS UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHAT THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE
ADVECTION OF A WARMER AIR MASS -- WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BEING COMMON ONCE AGAIN. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF AT LEAST A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF SBCAPE -- MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF I-65 BY THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITH THE ADVANCING WARM
FRONT, AND A 35-40 KT LLJ PUSHING NORTHWARD ENHANCING THE BULK
SHEAR VALUES, THINK SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY BE IN
THE CARDS DURING THIS LATE DAY/PEAK HEATING TIMEFRAME. IF THIS
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, A FEW STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY
STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. BY THE EARLY EVENING, PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE TAPERING OFF AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TN/KY
BORDER AREA AND DESPITE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING SURFACE-
BASED, CONVECTION (AND THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT) WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG/NORTH OF I-40.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REINFORCE THIS WARM/MOIST AIR MASS ON
THURSDAY, AND WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL THEN DROP BACK TO SOUTH
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING HIGH CHANCES (70-90%) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. WITH
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY THURSDAY NIGHT, FEEL LIKE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND THREAT FOR ANYTHING
STRONG WILL BE LOW.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY,
WITH A STALLED FRONT LIKELY TO BISECT THE LOCAL AREA IN AN E-TO-W
FASHION. LATEST EXTENDED RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS
THE EASTWARD MOTION OF A BROADER LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH (ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS) INITIATES DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LEE CYCLONE
ACROSS EASTERN CO. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. HOWEVER, HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS (AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) WILL COME FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
IN/OH, SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN
VALLEY. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION/LOCATION OF THE BROADER LONGWAVE
TROUGH ON SUNDAY, LIFT ABOVE THE SHALLOW POSTFRONTAL INVERSION
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD/COLD ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY
MORNING, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM NW-TO-SE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DEPTH OF THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS INCREASES. LOWS ON
MONDAY MORNING WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID 30S, WITH A MODERATELY
STRONG NORTH WIND PROVIDING WIND CHILLS IN THE U20S-L30S. CHANCES
FOR RAIN MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF LOW STRATUS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO AROUND 4 KFT AFTER
20Z, BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 04Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AFTER SUNRISE, CHANCES
FOR -SHRA WILL INCREASE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS BELOW 1 KFT AT BOTH
TERMINALS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS 12-18Z TIMEFRAME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 807 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN FEBRUARY 11-13, 2025. PRECIPITATION
EXCEEDING 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP
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