175
FXUS64 KHUN 051205
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
605 AM CST WED FEB 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST WED FEB 5 2025
A LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY (MARKING THE REMNANTS
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY)
CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM THE ARKLAMISS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
GA. A COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE VERY LITTLE FROM
CURRENT VALUES IN THE L-M 50S. LATER THIS MORNING, THE WARM FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE CYCLONE THAT IT IS ATTACHED
TO (CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHEASTERN NM) BEGINS TO TRACK EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOTION OF A GRADUALLY
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. DATA FROM THE 0Z
HREF SUGGESTS THAT DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS AS THIS OCCURS, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH BOTH LOW- LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL IMPROVE WITH TIME AS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES TO 40-50 KNOTS AND SW WINDS AT THE 850-MB LEVEL
STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KNOTS, LACK OF INSTABILITY (EVEN AS TEMPS WARM
INTO THE U60S-L70S) WILL MITIGATE THE RISK FOR STRONG- SEVERE
STORMS AS UPDRAFTS MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF THE IMPROVING SHEAR. REGARDLESS, A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40
MPH MAY STILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST WED FEB 5 2025
LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING, LIKELY EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION, LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SSW AS THE INITIAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN IN/OH WHILE A
SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN OK. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID NIGHT FEATURING LOWS IN THE
U50S-L60S. AS THE FRONTAL WAVE SPREADS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON
THURSDAY, A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EVOLVE ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT, WHICH IS STILL
PREDICTED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEVERAL CAMS SUGGEST THAT A COUPLE OF
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXES MAY INSTIGATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ACROSS TN (PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN AL)
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, OUR HIGHEST POPS HAVE
BEEN RESERVED FOR THE TIMEFRAME WHEN THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL BE
WITHIN OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES TO 50-60 KNOTS (WITHIN
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA), LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD ONLY A
LOW RISK FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
THE FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND OUT OF OUR REGION
LATE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD RETURN NORTHWARD AT SOME POINT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF A
BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST INDUCES
DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST WED FEB 5 2025
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL LOCATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
CYCLONE TO OUR WEST ON SATURDAY, WITH GUSTY SSW WINDS AND
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW
RACES NORTHEASTWARD INTO IN/OH AND A LINE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT POSTFRONTAL
RAIN THAT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT NORTHWESTWARD EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOWER OR HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN
OUR GRIDS ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY ON TUESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY, WITH A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CST WED FEB 5 2025
SINCE THE PREVIOUS AVIATION UPDATE, LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEGUN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AL, WITH CIGS NOW RANGING FROM
IFR (MSL) TO MVFR (HSV). CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING, WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR
STRATUS AND LGT SHRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A
FEW TSRA MAY ALSO OCCUR AND REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF AWWS (FOR
LIGHTNING), BUT STORM COVERAGE IS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY
DECREASE FROM LATE THIS EVENING THRU EARLY THUR MORNING, AS SFC
WINDS SHIFT TO SSW AND STRENGTHEN TO 8G16 KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD
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