835
FXUS64 KHUN 131712
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1212 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AL AND GA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY PROMOTING
SOUTH FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN VALLEY
AREAS (A FEW DEGREES COOLER ATOP THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
AN 8H AND SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SHIFT EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE 5H RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH AR MONDAY. VERY WARM WEST-
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP 8H TEMPERATURES IN THE 15-17C
RANGE MONDAY WITH A WELL-DEFINED EML OVERSPREADING THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REACH THE
LOWER 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION NEAR OR JUST BELOW 700 MB WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTION. SO DESPITE NEGATIVE SI VALUES OF -1 TO -2, NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MAINTAINING LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, SSE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN ON THURSDAY AS THE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN VEER TO SSW
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND RELATED SURFACE
LOW EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF UPPER LOW (WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD).
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SSW FLOW REGIME IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WILL PERSIST FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY, WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED WITH TIME AS
DEWPOINTS RISE BACK INTO THE U50S-L60S BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
REGIME, THE GREATEST SPATIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW'S TRAILING COLD
FRONT, WHICH (IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE EARLIER COLD FRONT THIS
WEEK) WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AS
THE PARENT LOW RACES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTHEASTWARD AS SOUTHWESTERN KY/NORTHWESTERN TN ON SATURDAY
BEFORE STALLING AS A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, AND FOR THIS REASON, A LOW (10-30%) POP HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST VALUES NORTH OF
THE TN RIVER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM PROGRESSIVELY BACK INTO
THE L80S FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RISING INTO THE U50S-L60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE LLWS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 40 KNOTS BEGINNING BETWEEN 2-4Z. THIS IS THEN
FORECAST TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL ABOUT 13Z. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 18-23 KNOTS BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...26
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