516
FXUS64 KHUN 141130
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
630 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
A BUNCH OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
IN FAR NW ALABAMA. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
KANSAS AND NW TEXAS. THIS IS PROVIDED SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HELPING TO KEEP WINDS UP THIS
EVENING AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS.
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
THIN/HIGH CLOUD COVER AND A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CURRENTLY IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS, MAINLY IN NE ALABAMA, WHERE WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER.
THIS MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THOSE AREAS UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK, WHEN
THEY COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ALABAMA. NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER, DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF
SO LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING 19 TO 21 DEGREE CELSIUS 925 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO, VERY FEW ARE SHOWING
APPRECIABLE/PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED (GIVEN HIGHS TODAY 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE), THINKING
THAT HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S (ESPECIALLY NEAR/WEST
OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR). THIS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MIX UP TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS WORTH OF WIND ALOFT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
REACHING A FULL 40 KNOTS OF WIND IS LOW DUE TO A CAP THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE JUST ABOVE 850 MB. HOWEVER, WE WILL BE AT LEAST CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING TO
SEE IF ONE WILL BE NEEDED. FOR NOW, BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO
CRITERIA.
FAIRLY DRY AIR ALSO IS SHOWN IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS MUCH OF
THE DAY. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
LIKELY DROP TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ANY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT UNTIL AFTER 7 PM ON MONDAY. MOST GUIDANCE
BRINGS SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AROUND 10 PM. THIS IS LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO A VERY STRONG CAP AROUND 850 MB AND DRY AIR
BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. HOWEVER, GIVEN SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING AND
FORCING AROUND 500 MB THAT WILL COME INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT ON MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WHEN LOWS WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. A CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT OR
CLAM WINDS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S AGAIN, BUT DESPITE WINDS FROST DOESN'T LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATER
IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO THE
END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AS A RESULT WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AT LEAST. LOWS
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. A DRY FORECAST
THOUGH, SO A NICE TIME TO ENJOY OUTDOOR PLANS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS BUT REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS APPROACH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
MAY MATERIALIZE JUST BEYOND THAT PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS TODAY, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR OF 40KTS AT 2000FT THIS MORNING, AND SW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT, AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT BOTH TERMINALS TO
DEPICT THE BEST WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL MVFR REDUCTIONS
AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN AND WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...25
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