214
FXUS64 KHUN 141535
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1035 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FLATTEN TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FLORIDA AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
CANADA TODAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND PASS TO
THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. IT MAY ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES. WINDS HAVE GUSTED
TO AROUND 15-20 MPH FOR SOME LOCATIONS SO FAR THIS MORNING AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IS LOW DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
QUITE A CAPPING INVERSION; HOWEVER, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW
A MODEST AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY, GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF I-65 THIS EVENING. THUS, THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE (15-20%)
FOR A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST. STORM CHANCES THEN DWINDLE BY LATE
TONIGHT, AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNRISE. LASTLY,
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILD, DIPPING INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. NO RAIN IS FORECAST, WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING; ALTHOUGH, SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK. OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH ON TUESDAY, NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS;
ALTHOUGH, SOME LOCATIONS OVER NW AL MAY REACH CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL THEN DIP INTO THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO THE
END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AS A RESULT WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AT LEAST. LOWS
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. A DRY FORECAST
THOUGH, SO A NICE TIME TO ENJOY OUTDOOR PLANS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS BUT REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS APPROACH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
MAY MATERIALIZE JUST BEYOND THAT PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS TODAY, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR OF 40KTS AT 2000FT THIS MORNING, AND SW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT, AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT BOTH TERMINALS TO
DEPICT THE BEST WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL MVFR REDUCTIONS
AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN AND WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...25
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