400
FXUS64 KHUN 150450
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1150 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN
ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. SOME STRONG STORMS HAVE FIRED ALONG THE
FRONT OVER NORTHERN TENNESSEE, WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
OCCURRING OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND KENTUCKY. THERE STILL MAY BE 500
TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG THE FRONT. SHEAR IS VERY GOOD ALONG
THE FRONT AS WELL, BUT A VERY DRY EML LAYER BETWEEN 850 MB AND
700 MB IS LIKELY IN PLACE AS WELL. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
HOLD ONTO BETWEEN 400 AND 600 J/KG OF MUCAPE AS POSSIBLE
CONVECTION OR SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH 3 OR 4 AM.
FORCING IS STILL EVIDENT IN MODELS BUT A TAD WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS.
MAINLY EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME SMALL HAIL
COULD OCCUR BEFORE 3 AM OR SO, BUT EXPECT JUST SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THAT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
EVENTUALLY DROP SOME BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A VERY DEEP COLUMN OF DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT MIXING TO OCCUR
INTO A LAYER OF VERY STEEP DEWPOINT LAPSE RATES IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CRATER DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 20S IN MANY AREAS (MAYBE A FEW UPPER TEENS AS WELL). LUCKILY
KBDI VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 300. SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT GIVEN WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS NOT THE BEST DAY
TO DO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER, BUT NO WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S MAINLY. THOUGH SOME UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP
OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL
WARM UP A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE EAST TO AROUND 50 IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO THE
END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AS A RESULT WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AT LEAST. LOWS
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. A DRY FORECAST
THOUGH, SO A NICE TIME TO ENJOY OUTDOOR PLANS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS BUT REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS APPROACH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
MAY MATERIALIZE JUST BEYOND THAT PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART AT BOTH TERMINALS.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS A FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
TN MOVING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A
VICINITY SHOWER AND SOME LOWER CEILINGS, BUT VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
ONCE IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST
BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...GH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page