045
FXUS64 KHUN 162256
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
556 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST, DRY WEATHER
PERSISTS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT, A VERY
LOW CHANCE OF FOG IS EXISTS ALONG BODIES OF WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
ON THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE VA/NC
REGION, AND ESTABLISHING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW AND RISING
HEIGHTS AND MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS, SHOULD PRODUCE EVEN WARMER
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 MPH. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE REDUCED INTO THE
UPPER 20S PERCENT RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
MILDER IN THE 50S (LOWER 50S EAST TO UPPER 50S WEST).
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR
GOOD FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO MID 60S WEST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
LATEST EXTENDED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE (EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST) WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY, BEFORE ACQUIRING A SHARP NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AS THE RELATED
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST TX SATURDAY,
BEFORE DEEPENING AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD ANAFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED WELL TO OUR
NORTH/WEST (IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT) ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THIS
ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK INTO NORTHWEST AL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PERHAPS
INITIATING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A QLCS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AS
IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS MO/AR AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING (LIKELY RELATED
TO THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH BYPASSING OUR REGION TO THE NORTH), THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT, WITH THIS FEATURE
CONTINUING TO FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR CWFA (LIKELY AT SOME POINT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING). MID-LEVEL SW FLOW OF 45-55
KNOTS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION, BUT WITH ONLY MINOR VEERING IN THE SURFACE-500 MB
LAYER AND SHEAR ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY,
MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS WOULD BE THE FAVORED STORM MODE. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-M60S BENEATH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
GENERATING CAPE OF 250-750 J/KG, MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL
WILL BE CAPABLE WITH THESE CLUSTERS, AND ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE AS STRONG AS IT COULD BE THIS TIME OF
YEAR (30-40 KNOTS), SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A
FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS INFILTRATING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...RAD
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