326
FXUS64 KHUN 170437
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1137 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, THIS WILL PROMOTE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP
EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS, COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY
CONDITIONS, SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM COMFORTABLY INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
A WARMER NIGHT IS FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS PATCHY CLOUD COVER
FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE IT
INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT, LOWS WILL RUN ABOUT
10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REINFORCING A WARM, MOIST AIR
MASS. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
OZARKS, AND MID SOUTH, A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY REMAIN WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION (SAVE FOR SOME CLOUD COVER THAT MAY
ATTEMPT TO WORK ITS WAY IN). THIS WARM AIR MASS, COMBINED WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE/HEATING, WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
THE TN VALLEY WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING TO OUR SE
AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST COME EASTER
SUNDAY. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY, OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS CLOUDS SHEAR OFF TO THE
EAST SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. DESPITE THE
OVERCAST CONDITIONS, SE FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO PASS EARLY ON MONDAY AS THE
PARENT LOW EJECTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WELL TO OUR
NORTH LEAVING MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY. MODELS MAINTAIN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AND AROUND 30-40
KTS OF BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL MAINTAIN OUR THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS AS
THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
LOW RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY
AS ZONAL FLOW MOVES IN. THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT TO LINGER AND A FEW SHORT WAVES TO
RIPPLE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE THIS WILL MEAN ADDITIONAL CLOUDY DAYS AND PROLONGED LOW
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP.24
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