389
FXUS64 KHUN 172044
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
344 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
A STORM SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
WILL RESULT IN A TROUGHING WEST, AND RIDGING EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE EXITING THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THIS REGION INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER SE
CANADA WILL TEND TO RESULT IN SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE DESERT SW
MOVING MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EAST. THIS WILL HELP CONTINUE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF OF THE EAST COAST WILL
HELP CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS
WILL BRING A WARMER AIR NORTHWARD, AND MAKE FOR A MILDER NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 OVER
NORTHEAST ALABAMA TO NEAR 60 NORTHWEST ALABAMA. THE ON-GOING
FORECAST WAS IN FINE SHAPE, WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS AND PLACES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
IN AN AREA OF PVA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WILL BE STALLED AND THERE WILL
BE A SUBSEQUENT AXIS OF INCREASED THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN
CLOUD COVER WELL AHEAD OF THE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM. OUR NEXT RAIN
CHANCES DO NOT RETURN UNTIL SUNDAY WITH GREATER IMPACTS ON MONDAY
(MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM). HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S-60S. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE,
THESE DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS UP TO
20-25 MPH. THIS, HOWEVER, IS BELOW LOCAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
THE TN VALLEY WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING TO OUR SE
AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST COME EASTER
SUNDAY. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY, OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS CLOUDS SHEAR OFF TO THE
EAST SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. DESPITE THE
OVERCAST CONDITIONS, SE FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO PASS EARLY ON MONDAY AS THE
PARENT LOW EJECTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WELL TO OUR
NORTH LEAVING MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY. MODELS MAINTAIN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AND AROUND 30-40
KTS OF BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL MAINTAIN OUR THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS AS
THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
LOW RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY
AS ZONAL FLOW MOVES IN. THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT TO LINGER AND A FEW SHORT WAVES TO
RIPPLE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE THIS WILL MEAN ADDITIONAL CLOUDY DAYS AND PROLONGED LOW
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH KMSL AND KHSV. 40 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR AT 2000 FT
WAS ADDED BETWEEN 05Z-13Z AT KHSV AND 03-11Z AT KMSL. SSE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 13-15 KTS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT BOTH SITES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...HC
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