931
FXUS64 KHUN 180414
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1114 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
EVENING ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST, EXTENDING SWWRD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AND INTO THE EASTERN/NORTHERN GULF. THIS DEEP/WARM CORE HIGH WILL
FEATURE PROMINENTLY IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEAR
TERM (ACTUALLY THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND PROBABLY BEYOND). ROUNDING
THE NW FLANK OF THE EXPANDING UPR RIDGE, CIRRUS CAN BE OBSERVED
THIS EVENING STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA, BUT OTHERWISE NO
CLOUDINESS TO OBSERVE IN THE IMMEDIATE REGION. THE CLOUDS HAVE
OBSCURED (TO SOME EXTENT) SCATTERED SPOTS OF APPARENT FIRE
ACTIVITY OBSERVED IN THE 3.9 UM CHANNEL EARLIER...THE PARTIAL
RESULT OF RHS THAT FELL INTO THE 15-20% PERCENT RANGE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. ANYWAY, CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD
OVERNIGHT WITH A 5-10 MPH WIND STIRRING, AND TEMPS LARGELY
FALLING JUST INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE LIKELY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR RHS AROUND 60-80% OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL GROW WARMER YET AGAIN AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND SUNSHINE REIGNS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE INTERMITTENT MAINLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS, LITTLE SHIELDING OF THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR. DEEPENING S-SW FLOW WILL OFFER WAA
AND GRADUALLY MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH DEW POINTS RISING SLOWLY
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL OCCUR INITIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, BUT THERE IS A QUESTION HOW MUCH DEW POINTS WILL RISE IN
EASTERN AREAS BEFORE DEEP MIXING OCCURS. NEVERTHELESS, RED FLAG
CRITERIA WON'T BE MET TOMORROW WITH KBDI VALUES <300, ALTHOUGH
THIS PART OF THE CRITERIA WILL BE GOING AWAY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE MID/UPR SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TENDS TO MIGRATE TO THE SW,
MAINTAINING A PRESENCE LARGELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA
DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THE UPR RIDGE HOLDING SWAY ACROSS OUR
AREA, THE PRIMARY RIDGE/TROUGH INTERFACE AND AXIS FOR STORMY
WEATHER WILL LIE GENERALLY TO OUR WEST, FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S EACH DAY
DURING THE PERIOD, DESPITE PERIODS OF CIRRUS (PERHAPS OPAQUE AT
TIMES) MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SATURDAY MAY BE THE OVERALL
WARMEST DAY WITH A PLUME OF ~16-18C TEMPS UP TO MIXING HEIGHT
(~850 MB) MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAINTAINING LOW-LVL MIXING
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE GRADUALLY BEGINNING
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BROAD MID/UPR RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN OVER THE PERIOD, BUT THE TENDENCY FOR LONG WAVE RIDGING
WILL REMAIN IN THE EAST CONUS VS THE WEST. AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL RIDGE ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE INTERFACE TO OUR WEST
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. DYNAMIC FORCING WILL TEND
TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, WITH OVERALL LIFT AND
RESULTING RAINFALL INTENSITY/COVERAGE LIKEWISE WEAKENING.
NEVERTHELESS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA, BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST AND
LASTING INTO MONDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE WEST
CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS EVENT, SO CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER APPEAR TO BE SMALL AT THIS TIME.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA LATE MONDAY, BUT THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IN THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT,
LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE GREATER
PORTION OF THE MODEL EVIDENCE SUGGESTS DRYING OUT ON TUESDAY
GRADUALLY, ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MAY LINGER IN THE
REGION. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT QUICKLY TRANSITING UPR WAVES
MAY BRING OTHER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BUT DUE TO THE FEATURES INVOLVED AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LOCATION OF THE BROAD SCALE BOUNDARY, POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
KHSV AND KMSL TAF SITES. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TEND TO BE
MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT AT KMSL, BUT MORE QUESTIONABLE AT KHSV.
OTHERWISE, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED EXPECTATIONS FOR LLWS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT KHSV, BUT STILL INCLUDED FROM
05-09Z AT KMSL. NEVERTHELESS, WILL MONITOR AVAILABLE WIND
PROFILERS AND UPDATE FOR EXPECTATIONS FOR LLWS AS NECESSARY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...KDW
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