741
FXUS64 KHUN 182339
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
639 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST AND THE SFC HIGH
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS
WILL SLACK WITH SUNSET, HOWEVER S/SE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AT 5-10KTS. THE WAA COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD ONLY REACHING THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. FOR
MOST, THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MUCH LIKE EARLIER TODAY, EXPECTING A BATCH OF LOW CLOUD COVER TO
SLIDE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
THE SURFACE AND 8H HIGHS WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT 5H TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE IN THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. OTHER THAN SOME LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING AND ADVECTING
NORTHWARD ON THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW, WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, AND
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE GRADUALLY BEGINNING
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BROAD MID/UPR RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN OVER THE PERIOD, BUT THE TENDENCY FOR LONG WAVE RIDGING
WILL REMAIN IN THE EAST CONUS VS THE WEST. AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL RIDGE ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE INTERFACE TO OUR WEST
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. DYNAMIC FORCING WILL TEND
TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, WITH OVERALL LIFT AND
RESULTING RAINFALL INTENSITY/COVERAGE LIKEWISE WEAKENING.
NEVERTHELESS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA, BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST AND
LASTING INTO MONDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE WEST
CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS EVENT, SO CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER APPEAR TO BE SMALL AT THIS TIME.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA LATE MONDAY, BUT THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IN THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT,
LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE GREATER
PORTION OF THE MODEL EVIDENCE SUGGESTS DRYING OUT ON TUESDAY
GRADUALLY, ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MAY LINGER IN THE
REGION. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT QUICKLY TRANSITING UPR WAVES
MAY BRING OTHER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BUT DUE TO THE FEATURES INVOLVED AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LOCATION OF THE BROAD SCALE BOUNDARY, POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT. LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN AROUND DAYBREAK COULD PRODUCE A SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS (1500-2500 FT AGL); THUS INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT
AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS OF 10-20KT AT 19/0000Z SHOULD DIMINISH INTO
THE 5-10KT RANGE AFTER DUSK, AND BACK MORE TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK SAT SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-20KT
FROM THE SSW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...RSB
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