888
FXUS64 KHUN 190544
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1244 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
ON A BIG PICTURE, MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS AMPLIFYING WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WAS BUILDING OVER THE SE CONUS. UNDER A SW-NE UPPER FLOW EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN AZ/NM AND MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES, AND A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING
FROM TX TO MO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE
GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STOUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS WILL HOLD STRONG AND HELP KEEP THE ABOVE NOTED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A STEADY SE-S
FLOW AND GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT MILDER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT, RANGING FROM AROUND 54
OVER NE ALABAMA TO 64 FOR NW ALABAMA.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY, WITH GENERALLY
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. CLOUD COVER HOWEVER SHOULD
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST, AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST INCHES
EVER SO CLOSER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MID 80S, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NE
ALABAMA WITH LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. EASTER SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE
DRY WEATHER WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AND ANOTHER WARM DAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S EAST TO MID 60S WEST.
THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE NBM HAS LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIMING SPEED FROM THE BLENDS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS APPEAR TO BE TOO QUICK. NEWER RUNS MAY SLOW THE START OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE; WITH MY BEST TIMING HAVING RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TEMPERED SOME, RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S
EAST. AT THIS TIME, THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY APPEARS WILL BE
"GENERAL" WITH THE USUAL GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN
RISK. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
BEYOND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
STILL HOLDING ON TO A "GENERAL" THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH IN THIS
TIME. THE COLD FRONT'S PARENT LOW WILL BE MORE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, THIS DISTANCE WILL HELP TAME LOCAL THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY.
A LOOK AT DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH STORM PARAMETERS, SO FAR WAS
HINTING AT CAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/K AND HELICITY
VALUES LESS THAN 100 M/S AS WELL. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF
1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. WITH
THE SPRING GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY AND DECIDUOUS TREES BECOMING
ACTIVE, THEY SHOULD HELP ABSORB MORE OF THE RUNOFF. A DRY SPELL
THAT MOST OF THE AREA IS IN, WILL ALSO ABSORB THE RAINFALL.
A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD BECOME ALMOST ZONAL,
STILL WITH A HINT OF TROUGHING WEST AND RIDGING EAST FOR THE MID
WEEK AND BEYOND. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY, THEN
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT LURKING
NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, AND
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DECENT CHANCES OF
RAIN AND THE FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA, HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. IT SHOULD GET A BIT
WARMER AS WE GO INTO THE MID AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY, SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 80S
BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE PERIOD WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIN HIGH CIGS DEVELOPING OVER KMSL AT THIS TIME
EXPANDING TO THE KHSV TERMINAL AFTER 6Z. SOME WIND SHEAR AROUND
40 KNOTS FROM 190 TO 200 DEGREES IS EXPECTED UNTIL JUST BEFORE 9Z.
SOME MVFR CIGS ARE HINTED AT BY MODELS BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z AT KHSV
AND 13Z AND 17Z AT KMSL. FOR NOW INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THESE
CONDITIONS, BUT THEY COULD END UP BEING PREDOMINATE DURING THAT
PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE BREAKS UP THESE CIGS WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT BOTH TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...KTW
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