180
FXUS64 KHUN 191033
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF HIGH/THIN CLOUD COVER IS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO EASTERN
TENNESSEE. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUD COVER IS DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND IS FORECAST BY MANY MODELS TO EXTEND NNE
INTO LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AROUND OR JUST
AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING
TOWARDS NOON. THE EARLY CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS A TAD COOLER.
REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
HIGHER BACK INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, TONIGHT SHOULD FEATURE UNSEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NE ALABAMA WITH LOW/MID
60S ELSEWHERE. EASTER SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN AND ANOTHER WARM DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S. SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S EAST TO MID 60S WEST.
THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE NBM HAS LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIMING SPEED FROM THE BLENDS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS APPEAR TO BE TOO QUICK. NEWER RUNS MAY SLOW THE START OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE; WITH MY BEST TIMING HAVING RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TEMPERED SOME, RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S
EAST. AT THIS TIME, THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY APPEARS WILL BE
"GENERAL" WITH THE USUAL GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN
RISK. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
BEYOND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
STILL HOLDING ON TO A "GENERAL" THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH IN THIS
TIME. THE COLD FRONT'S PARENT LOW WILL BE MORE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, THIS DISTANCE WILL HELP TAME LOCAL THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY.
A LOOK AT DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH STORM PARAMETERS, SO FAR WAS
HINTING AT CAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/K AND HELICITY
VALUES LESS THAN 100 M/S AS WELL. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF
1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. WITH
THE SPRING GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY AND DECIDUOUS TREES BECOMING
ACTIVE, THEY SHOULD HELP ABSORB MORE OF THE RUNOFF. A DRY SPELL
THAT MOST OF THE AREA IS IN, WILL ALSO ABSORB THE RAINFALL.
A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD BECOME ALMOST ZONAL,
STILL WITH A HINT OF TROUGHING WEST AND RIDGING EAST FOR THE MID
WEEK AND BEYOND. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY, THEN
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT LURKING
NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, AND
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DECENT CHANCES OF
RAIN AND THE FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA, HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. IT SHOULD GET A BIT
WARMER AS WE GO INTO THE MID AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY, SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 80S
BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE PERIOD WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS RELATIVE TO
THE HSV AND MSL TERMINALS, MODIFED THE PERIOD BETWEEEN 12Z AND 17Z
TO INCLUDE A PREDOMINANT MVFR CIG PERIOD FROM 12Z THROUGH 17Z AT
BOTH TERMINALS. OTHWERISE, THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED FOR EITHER
TERMINAL SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...KTW
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