603
FXUS64 KHUN 022318
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAUDERDALE,
LIMESTONE, COLBERT, FRANKLIN (AL), AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS WELL AS OUR THREE TENNESSEE COUNTIES
(LINCOLN, FRANKLIN, AND MOORE) UNTIL 5PM CDT. THIS WATCH MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF STORM REDEVELOPMENT.
A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS RECENTLY ISSUED FOR OUR
REMAINING ALABAMA COUNTIES (CULLMAN, MADISON, MORGAN, DEKALB,
JACKSON, AND MARSHALL) UNTIL 8PM CDT.
AHEAD OF THE FORECAST BROKEN LINE OF STORMS, STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RESULTED IN SOME TREES DOWN AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES. THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH 5PM, NORTH-CENTRAL AL
AROUND 7PM, AND OVER NE AL AROUND 9PM. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN HAIL, WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY TORNADO
FORMATION.
MAKE SURE TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNING INFORMATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING! FURTHERMORE, THESE STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS (PWAT VALUES ARE BETWEEN THE 75TH TO
90TH PERCENTILE WHEN LOOKING AT BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY). THUS,
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN LEADING TO
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF
YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS!
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE SLATED TO CONTINUE LATER TONIGHT, WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
LOWS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
ANOTHER ROUND/CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS THEN ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 25-35 KNOTS; ALTHOUGH, WITH
THIS TIMING SHIFTING EARLIER, THIS COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.
IF STORMS DO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS COINCIDES WITH A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC FOR THE ENTIRE LOCAL
AREA. CURRENT THINKING REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER TIMING IS
8AM-12PM FOR NORTHWEST ALABAMA, 10AM-2PM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AL,
AND 12PM-5PM OVER NE AL. HOWEVER, AS WAS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW DUE TO THE EARLIER TIMING OF
THE STORM ACTIVITY. IF THE TIMING SHIFTS TO BE LATER (COLD FRONT
SLOWS DOWN), CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE DUE TO
GREATER INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. ULTIMATELY, MAKE SURE TO
STAY WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS
SHOULD ONE BE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA! THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO CONTINUING SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. MAKE
SURE TO FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS!
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN SLATED TO DECREASE SATURDAY EVENING,
DIMINISHING BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE LOW CHANCES (15-30%) OF SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER! HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES BY SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL, DIPPING INTO THE LOWER
50S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WITH ZONAL FLOW AND RIPPLES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL ALSO BE PUSHED NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLATED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE ARKLATEX AND
ARKLAMISS BY LATE WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN, RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES
(30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S/60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WANES WITH THE LINE SAGGING SOUTH. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CEILINGS
FROM LINGERING STRATUS AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM LIGHT
FOG. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH SOME CONVECTION TO THE WEST, BUT THINK
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON SATURDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AWWS AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP.24
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page