772
FXUS64 KHUN 030439
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1139 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
IN WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, STRATIFORM RAINFALL CONTINUES TO TEMPORARILY TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER, WITH
MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATING A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AS OF 03Z.
HOWEVER, RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST MAY SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL
STORMS OVERNIGHT, BUT THINK A VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THAT
WILL BE MOVING BACK WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
MAY BE ONGOING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BEFORE YET ANOTHER LULL
OCCURS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD GIVE THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY A WINDOW TO DESTABILIZE, WITH AT LEAST MODEST
SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
25-35 KTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY,
DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS,
HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOLKS THAT HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS
TOMORROW SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST AND HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS TO GET WARNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WE'LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND A CLEARING SKY WITH LIGHT WINDS. A
CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROMOTING AN EARLY MAY "COOL DOWN".
THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (10-20%), AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS
WILL MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE UPPER-LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY TUESDAY, WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR (50-80%) SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN WITH THE LEAD WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
SUBSEQUENT WAVES CREATING MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AS AN AREA OF -RA GRADUALLY DIMINISHES, LOWER CEILINGS OF
010-015AGL (MVFR) WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BETWEEN
14-19Z, A NEW BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NORTH AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY 19-22Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...17
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