223
FXUS64 KHUN 030639
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
139 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE OZARKS THIS MORNING PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST
KY AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW INTO NORTHERN AR. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG AND
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY IS
THE MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR TODAY WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL STORM
SEVERITY. AGREE WITH SPC OUTLOOK ON THIS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
CURRENT LOW AND MID CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE HEATING, AT LEAST THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY AND EXIT OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES BY 22-23Z. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE
THE GREATEST RISKS IF INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY AND THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BECOME WELL-ORGANIZED. FOR
NOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL TAKE PLACE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WE'LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND A CLEARING SKY WITH LIGHT WINDS. A
CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROMOTING AN EARLY MAY "COOL DOWN".
THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (10-20%), AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS
WILL MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE UPPER-LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY TUESDAY, WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR (50-80%) SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN WITH THE LEAD WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
SUBSEQUENT WAVES CREATING MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AS AN AREA OF -RA GRADUALLY DIMINISHES, LOWER CEILINGS OF
010-015AGL (MVFR) WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BETWEEN
14-19Z, A NEW BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NORTH AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY 19-22Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...17
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