872
FXUS64 KHUN 031522
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1022 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW AS
IT DOES. ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION TODAY AS WELL, PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING.
MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA IS UNDER CLOUD COVER AT PRESENT, WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING EAST OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA, WITH A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS TO OUR WEST. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY
VALUES MAY REACH BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING
TO 35-45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING, AS THIS WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO
HOW STRONG STORMS MAY BECOME LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WE SEE SOME
SUNSHINE, MORE INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED AND A HIGHER CHANCE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE HRRR IS LEANING MORE
TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO, WITH THE LINE OF STORMS BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST THAN SAY THE NAM WHICH IS NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC.
ULTIMATELY, DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CURRENT THINKING ON TIMING FOR THIS
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT HAS NOT CHANGED, WITH STORMS FORMING
OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA BETWEEN 10AM-1PM, NORTH-CENTRAL AL BETWEEN
11AM-2PM, AND NE AL BETWEEN 12-3PM. MAKE SURE TO STAY WEATHER
AWARE AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNING SHOULD THEY BE
ISSUED. THE OTHER CONCERN MAY BE FLOODING, SINCE MODELS INDICATE
PWATS BETWEEN 1.25-1.45 INCHES (BETWEEN THE THE AND THE
PERCENTILES WHEN COMPARED WITH BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY). THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, LEADING
TO AT LEAST NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS. TURN
AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS!
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH COLD
FROPA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL HELP LEAD TO MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON THAN
WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE THEREFORE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH FROPA,
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER AS WELL, DIVING INTO THE UPPER
40S LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LOOKS TO SETTLE
IN OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
BROUGHT SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
(10-40%) OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARM UP IS FORECAST, IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER!
HIGHS BEGIN IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY, WARMING INTO THE
70S BY TUESDAY. LOWS DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT,
BUT WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE UPPER-LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY TUESDAY, WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR (50-80%) SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN WITH THE LEAD WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
SUBSEQUENT WAVES CREATING MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
LOW CEILINGS OF 010-015AGL (MVFR) WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF
NORTH AL AND SOUTHERN TN THIS MORNING. BETWEEN 14-19Z, A NEW BAND
OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH
AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AND A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST BY 19-22Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...17
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