090
FXUS64 KHUN 031940
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
240 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS PROGRESSING OVER THE I-65
CORRIDOR (IN GENERAL). THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE SEEMS TO BE
MAINTAINING SPEED (40-50 MPH) VERSUS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT (CLOSER
TO 30 MPH OR SO), CAUSING THE LINE TO BE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MOST WIND GUST REPORTS FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE
TOPPED OUT BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. IN ADDITION, WE'VE RECEIVED SEVERAL
REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LAWRENCE COUNTY
UNTIL 315PM, WITH ANOTHER LARGER FLOOD WARNING EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY DOWN THROUGH LIMESTONE AND MORGAN COUNTIES
THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415PM. WITH MODEL PWATS ALSO BETWEEN
1.25-1.45 INCHES (BETWEEN THE THE AND THE PERCENTILES WHEN
COMPARED WITH BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY), THESE STORMS HAVE PROVEN
TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. TAKE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING, AS
THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEADING TO LOWER
VISIBILITY. LASTLY, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER
FLOODED ROADS!
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH ABOUT 5-6PM
THEN DIMINISH WITH COLD FROPA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE HELPED LEAD TO MUCH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON THAN WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY. IN FACT,
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
WITH FROPA, TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER
TONIGHT AS WELL, WITH LOWS DIVING INTO THE UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LOOKS TO SETTLE
IN OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
BROUGHT SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
(10-40%) OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARM UP IS FORECAST, IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER!
HIGHS BEGIN IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY, WARMING INTO THE
70S BY TUESDAY. LOWS DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT,
BUT WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE UPPER-LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY TUESDAY, WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR (50-80%) SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN WITH THE LEAD WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
SUBSEQUENT WAVES CREATING MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OVER NORTH ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING REDUCTIONS IN VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
LOWER (MVFR) CIGS WILL ALSO PERSIST BEFORE CLOUDS BREAK UP AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH, CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT, WITH LOWER CIGS
RANGING FROM IFR TO MVFR ALONG WITH SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY. THESE LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (10-40%)
THEN RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AS WELL FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN
5-10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
HOVER AROUND 5 KNOTS, THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...26
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