478
FXUS64 KHUN 032315
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
615 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS PROGRESSING OVER THE I-65
CORRIDOR (IN GENERAL). THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE SEEMS TO BE
MAINTAINING SPEED (40-50 MPH) VERSUS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT (CLOSER
TO 30 MPH OR SO), CAUSING THE LINE TO BE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MOST WIND GUST REPORTS FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE
TOPPED OUT BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. IN ADDITION, WE'VE RECEIVED SEVERAL
REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LAWRENCE COUNTY
UNTIL 315PM, WITH ANOTHER LARGER FLOOD WARNING EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY DOWN THROUGH LIMESTONE AND MORGAN COUNTIES
THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415PM. WITH MODEL PWATS ALSO BETWEEN
1.25-1.45 INCHES (BETWEEN THE THE AND THE PERCENTILES WHEN
COMPARED WITH BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY), THESE STORMS HAVE PROVEN
TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. TAKE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING, AS
THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEADING TO LOWER
VISIBILITY. LASTLY, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER
FLOODED ROADS!
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH ABOUT 5-6PM
THEN DIMINISH WITH COLD FROPA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE HELPED LEAD TO MUCH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON THAN WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY. IN FACT,
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
WITH FROPA, TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER
TONIGHT AS WELL, WITH LOWS DIVING INTO THE UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LOOKS TO SETTLE
IN OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
BROUGHT SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
(10-40%) OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARM UP IS FORECAST, IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER!
HIGHS BEGIN IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY, WARMING INTO THE
70S BY TUESDAY. LOWS DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT,
BUT WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE UPPER-LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY TUESDAY, WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR (50-80%) SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN WITH THE LEAD WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
SUBSEQUENT WAVES CREATING MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING (PROMPTING A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS) IN WAKE OF THE SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER IN THE DAY. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO BETWEEN 08-12Z FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER, MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS LOW STRATUS
WILL SETTLE BACK IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP.24
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