971
FXUS64 KHUN 040415
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1115 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
IN WAKE OF THE STORMS THAT RUMBLED THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING,
CLOUD COVER HAS SCATTERED OUT, WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 03Z. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS FROM THE EARLIER RAINFALL WILL CREATE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PATCHY FOG. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO THE NORTH DON'T REDEVELOP/MAKE IT BACK INTO
THE AREA UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED DUE TO THE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE FOG THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
LATE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A NOTABLY COOLER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
A SLOW-MOVING CUT-OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
COOL AIR MASS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL HELP TO CREATE SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
AND SOME LOW CHANCES (10-30%) FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR
MASS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL -- WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB ABOVE THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS THE CENTER OF THE
LOW SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD AGAIN CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING (WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S) AND SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AMPLE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL ATTEMPT TO COUNTERACT THE
COOLER AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. STILL, HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
EARLY MAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN ON
TUESDAY, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING
HIGHS TO WARM ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AN ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SLOW-MOVING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS
AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE FIRST ONE
BRINGING MEDIUM/HIGH (60-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW GRADUALLY PROPAGATES
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S EACH DAY, WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AREAS OF LOW CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED, ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AL. AT KHSV, HAVE FORECAST 3/4SM IN A
TEMPO PERIOD FROM 08-12Z, BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
CEILINGS OF 020-025AGL (MVFR) WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY 14-16Z,
LIFTING ABOVE 030AGL (VFR) BY 19-20Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA
AND -TSRA WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
BUT WITH A LOW PROBABILITY, HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT EITHER KMSL OR
KHSV JUST YET.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...17
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