384
FXUS64 KHUN 041700
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY. IN ADDITION, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. IN FACT,
THIS CAN BE SEEN BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS, WHICH SHOW LIGHT RETURNS
OVER TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA SO FAR THIS MORNING. HI-RES
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP MORE LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. ALTHOUGH, SOME SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE RUMBLES
OF THUNDER MAY BE HEARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TODAY. FURTHERMORE, IT WILL BE A
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS MERELY REACHING THE MID 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. OTHER SPOTS OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IT MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO GRAB AT LEAST A LIGHT
JACKET IF HEADING OUTDOORS TODAY!
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
BROKEN CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO HANG ON THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER, THIS WON'T STOP
TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S LATER TONIGHT!
A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO EXISTS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES
OF WATER. THIS IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME WIDESPREAD/DENSE AT THIS
TIME, BUT WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN CASE THIS
THINKING CHANGES.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW IS SLATED TO PERSIST OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS BEFORE PUSHING NORTH ON TUESDAY.
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING THEN TAKES HOLD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON MONDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON
TUESDAY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, BEGINNING IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION, BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. AS A RESULT, RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (30-60%) FORECAST. NO
THUNDER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE. MAKE SURE
TO GRAB AN UMBRELLA ON YOUR WAY OUT THE DOOR WEDNESDAY MORNING!
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
[UPDATED 1056 AM CDT SAT MAY 4] AN ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS BY MID
TO LATE WEEK AS A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW
SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE, WITH THE FIRST ONE BRINGING MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%)
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM CHANCES
(40-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
GRADUALLY PROPAGATES EASTWARDS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S EACH DAY,
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION AT ISSUANCE. ANTICIPATING THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE TERMINALS PERHAPS FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AT TIMES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP WITH
AMENDMENTS SHOULD MVFR BECOME MORE PROMINENT. A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE (20-40%) OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES DWINDLE TONIGHT, WITH
LINGERING BROKEN CLOUD COVER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY, BUT WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING
ON MONDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....AMP/26
AVIATION...26
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