094
FXUS64 KHUN 041910
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
210 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH HIGHS REMAINING ON TRACK TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
HAS SPURRED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA AS
SEEN BY RADAR SO FAR TODAY. HOWEVER, LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN OBSERVED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. ALTHOUGH, SOME SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WELL. THUS, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BROKEN CLOUD COVER IS THEN FORECAST TO HANG ON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WON'T STOP TEMPERATURES FROM
DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S LATER TONIGHT! A LOW CHANCE OF
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO EXISTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
THIS IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME WIDESPREAD/DENSE AT THIS TIME, BUT
WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN CASE THIS THINKING
CHANGES.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
[UPDATED 210 PM CDT SAT MAY 4] THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW
IS SLATED TO PERSIST OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
BEFORE PUSHING NORTH ON TUESDAY. BRIEF UPPER RIDGING THEN TAKES
HOLD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON
MONDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR TREND, BEGINNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASING TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION, BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. AS A RESULT, RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (30-60%) FORECAST. NO
THUNDER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE. MAKE SURE
TO GRAB AN UMBRELLA ON YOUR WAY OUT THE DOOR WEDNESDAY MORNING!
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
[UPDATED 1056 AM CDT SAT MAY 4] AN ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS BY MID
TO LATE WEEK AS A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW
SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE, WITH THE FIRST ONE BRINGING MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%)
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM CHANCES
(40-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
GRADUALLY PROPAGATES EASTWARDS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S EACH DAY,
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION AT ISSUANCE. ANTICIPATING THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE TERMINALS PERHAPS FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AT TIMES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP WITH
AMENDMENTS SHOULD MVFR BECOME MORE PROMINENT. A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE (20-40%) OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES DWINDLE TONIGHT, WITH
LINGERING BROKEN CLOUD COVER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY, BUT WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING
ON MONDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....AMP/26
AVIATION...26
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