301
FXUS64 KHUN 050238
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
938 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SATURDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS ALLOWED FOR MUCH COOLER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW ATTACHED
TO THE COLD FRONT IS LINGERING JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, IT IS THE
LINGERING LOW THAT HAS DRIVEN OUR OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LINGERING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR OVERNIGHT FORECAST WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVERNIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE OUR SAVING GRACE, KEEPING TEMPS
FROM DROPPING ANY LOWER. LIKEWISE, CLOUD COVER MAY AID IN LIMITING
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH WITH CALM WINDS
AND LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION WE WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MONDAY WILL PRESENT ANOTHER MILD DAY AS THE LOW JUST OUR NORTH
CONTINUES TO HANG OUT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND LOW (~10%) RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF THE TN RIVER.
HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S AS WE MAINTAIN OUR POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE SURFACE LOW PROMOTING CLOUDS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY
LIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE FOR CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, AN OMEGA
BLOCK WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST. THE
WESTERN LOW LOOKS TO DAMPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT ON TUESDAY, SENDING
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL MARK
A PERIOD OF PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.
ON WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
PEAKING AROUND 70-80% THROUGH MID DAY. WHILE THUNDER IS LIKELY
WITH THESE SHORTWAVES, ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY
DUE TO THE LACKING OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. THUS STORMS EMBEDDED
IN WITHIN A WIDER RAINS SHIELD LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO RIGHT NOT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE WET TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS
THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO DAMPEN AND SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST. AT THIS SURFACE THIS WILL AMOUNT TO SEVERAL DAYS
OF LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO LOOK UNLIKELY AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LACKING AND
SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE. BY
SATURDAY, THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED SE ALONG THE GULF COAST
PLACING US SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NE. THESE TWO DUELING FEATURES WILL INDUCE ENE
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA DRAWING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. MEDIUM
RAIN CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW RETROGRADING WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST HOWEVER
CHANGES TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY MAKE A PLAY AT INFLUENCING A DRIER FORECAST. LIKEWISE, LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY ON JUST HOW FAR WEST THE LOW
RETROGRADES. FURTHER WEST WOULD DECREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH 01Z, PROMPTING TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES AT BOTH TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER, LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STILL
WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG AS WELL DURING THIS WINDOW,
BUT DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...AMP
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