246
FXUS64 KHUN 050928
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
428 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS SWINGING MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT A DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS OCCURS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS OCCURS,
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN NORTH AL.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE SURFACE LOW PROMOTING CLOUDS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY
LIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE FOR CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, AN OMEGA
BLOCK WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST. THE
WESTERN LOW LOOKS TO DAMPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT ON TUESDAY, SENDING
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL MARK
A PERIOD OF PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.
ON WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
PEAKING AROUND 70-80% THROUGH MID DAY. WHILE THUNDER IS LIKELY
WITH THESE SHORTWAVES, ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY
DUE TO THE LACKING OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. THUS STORMS EMBEDDED
IN WITHIN A WIDER RAINS SHIELD LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO RIGHT NOT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE WET TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS
THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO DAMPEN AND SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST. AT THIS SURFACE THIS WILL AMOUNT TO SEVERAL DAYS
OF LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO LOOK UNLIKELY AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LACKING AND
SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE. BY
SATURDAY, THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED SE ALONG THE GULF COAST
PLACING US SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NE. THESE TWO DUELING FEATURES WILL INDUCE ENE
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA DRAWING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. MEDIUM
RAIN CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW RETROGRADING WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST HOWEVER
CHANGES TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY MAKE A PLAY AT INFLUENCING A DRIER FORECAST. LIKEWISE, LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY ON JUST HOW FAR WEST THE LOW
RETROGRADES. FURTHER WEST WOULD DECREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
PATCHY BR/FG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1SM OR LESS THROUGH 14Z
SOUTHEAST OF KDCU-KHSV-K4A6 IN NORTH AL. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS REMAINING ABOVE 030AGL AND LIGHT WEST
FLOW. EXPECT THE SKY TO SCATTER OR CLEAR BY 01Z WITH LIGHT OR
CALM FLOW TONIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17
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